Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Economists expect US inflation to ease despite high oil prices
Economists expect US inflation to moderate in September, though overall price growth may be higher than in August.
The Consumer Price Index figures are due Wednesday, and forecasts put annual headline inflation at 3.6% to 3.7%.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% for the month, down from 0.3% in August.
High oil prices have raised fuel costs, but economists say many other parts of core inflation have so far shown little sign of that pressure spreading.
Airfares have risen sharply as jet fuel costs climb, while price increases in other sectors may take months to appear.
Markets now see a much lower chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its October 27–28 meeting, with the probability around 19% to 20%, compared with more than 70% in late September.
The coming CPI figures will show whether the expected easing has taken hold.
Economists expect U.S. inflation measures to moderate in September despite elevated oil prices.
The Consumer Price Index report was due Wednesday, with headline inflation forecast at 3.6% to 3.7% year over year.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was expected to rise 0.2% monthly, down from 0.3% in August.
Economists said broader core inflation categories had so far shown little evidence of oil-price pass-through.
The reported chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its October 27–28 meeting had fallen to about 19% to 20%.
- Who
- U.S. economists expect inflation measures to moderate.
- What
- They forecast softer core inflation despite elevated oil prices.
- When
- The forecasts were for September; the CPI report was due Wednesday. The year is 2026.
- Where
- United States.
- Why
- Economists said broader core inflation categories had remained insulated from energy-price increases, with pass-through effects potentially taking months or quarters.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month over month.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting was above 70%.
Economists expected headline CPI growth of 0.5% month over month and 3.6% to 3.7% year over year, with core CPI growth of 0.2%.
The U.S. CPI report was due to be released.
- Headline CPI forecast
- 0.5% month over month in September
- Annual headline CPI forecast
- 3.6% to 3.7% in September
- Core CPI forecast
- 0.2% month over month in September
- Annual core inflation forecast
- 2.4%
- Rate-hike probability
- About 19% to 20% for the October 27–28 Federal Reserve meeting
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What people are saying
You’ve seen supply shocks create a sticky situation
I think you see softening across the board [in September].