Archive · 9 Jun 2025
SCE's Wildfire Forecasts Significantly Underestimated Fires
Imagine a company using AI to guess how big a fire will get.
This company, SCE, had models that predicted how a fire could spread, but their predictions were way off when a big fire like the Eaton Canyon fire happened.
Their guesses didn't account for how quickly homes and businesses would burn down, and they stopped running their simulations too soon.
The fire ended up burning much more land and causing far more damage than they thought.
Now, they are improving the models.
SCE's wildfire forecasts underestimated the potential size of the Eaton Canyon fire by a factor of ten.
The Eaton Canyon fire, which ignited as predicted, burned approximately 14,000 acres, destroying many structures.
The utility's models were criticized for limitations in simulating urban environments and the eight-hour simulation duration.
Despite AI and supercomputer upgrades, the forecasts were significantly off in the case of Eaton Canyon.
SCE is evaluating potential changes to its wildfire risk models, including 24-hour fire spread simulations.
- Who
- Southern California Edison (SCE) and various wildfire experts are involved.
- What
- SCE's wildfire forecasts underestimated the size of the Eaton Canyon and Palisades fires.
- When
- The Eaton Canyon fire ignited as forecast on January 7.
- Where
- Los Angeles, specifically the Eaton Canyon and Palisades areas.
- Why
- SCE's fire models underestimated fires due to limitations in simulating urban environments and simulation duration.
Critics of SCE's Models
SCE's Perspective
Model Accuracy
Critics of SCE's Models
Experts question SCE's models' effectiveness due to their failure to accurately predict fire size in urban settings.
SCE's Perspective
SCE defends its modeling capabilities.
- Utility Involved
- Southern California Edison (SCE)
- Fires Discussed
- Eaton Canyon and Palisades fires
- Eaton Canyon Actual Burned Area
- 14,000 acres
- Palisades Actual Burned Area
- 23,448 acres
- Eaton Canyon Fatalities
- 17
- Palisades Fatalities
- 12
- Estimated Economic Losses
- $250 billion
