Archive · 30 Sep 2025
Indian Economy Navigates Rate Decisions, Trade Shifts, and Growth Forecasts
India's central bank is deciding about interest rates.
Experts have different views, but most think the bank will keep rates the same.
The ADB predicts India's economy will grow by 6.5% this year, which is slightly lower due to new US taxes on some Indian exports.
The rupee changed slightly against the US dollar.
The government is managing how much money it spends and collects through taxes, and that affects the economy, as does the impact of the new US tariffs.
Inflation is expected to be 3.1% in current financial year.
RBI is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, with a 25 bps cut considered a surprise.
ADB forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.5% for FY26 due to US tariffs and domestic demand.
The rupee rose 3 paise against the US dollar amid falling crude oil prices.
US imposed tariffs on branded or patented drugs entering from India.
Government to auction a 10-year government bond on Friday to raise 320 billion rupees ($3.61 billion).
- Who
- Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Asian Development Bank (ADB)
- What
- RBI is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, ADB forecasts India's economic growth and US announced tariffs
- When
- RBI's policy decision expected, ADB released its outlook on Tuesday, September 30, 2025
- Where
- India
- Why
- The RBI's decision is influenced by domestic and external factors. US tariffs are impacting growth.
Dovish Stance
Hawkish Stance
Interest Rate Cut
Dovish Stance
Some believe a 25 bps cut could be a positive surprise and that RBI should lower rates for growth.
Hawkish Stance
Many anticipate RBI maintaining status quo, holding policy rates steady due to existing economic conditions.
- GDP Growth FY26 (ADB Forecast)
- 6.5%
- RBI Policy Meeting
- Expected to hold rates steady
- Current Repo Rate
- 5.5%
- Rupee Movement
- Rose 3 paise against USD
- 10-Year Bond Yield
- 6.5483% (early deals)
- US Tariff Impact
- US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce growth in the second half of FY26 and FY27
Sources
India's top bank stocks send mixed signals as RBI meets policy review
Rupee jumps 3 paise to 88.72 against dollar in early trade due to fall in crude oil prices
Asian Development Bank Forecasts India's Growth At 6.5% For FY26
India bond yields inch down on quarter-end buying; RBI policy key
