Archive · 3 Sep 2026
Mishra Defends India’s 7.8% GDP Growth Against Critics
India said its economy grew 7.8% in the April-June 2026 quarter.
Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned this number and said growth might have been only 2.6% using a different comparison.
The disagreement began after India changed the way it calculates GDP and updated the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
Neelkanth Mishra said comparing numbers from the old and new systems directly is incorrect.
He argued that the new system uses better data and methods.
He also pointed to rising vehicle sales, tax collections, lending, construction and investment as signs that businesses and consumers are active.
Morgan Stanley increased its forecast for India’s full-year growth.
However, Mishra said weak wage growth shows that the economy still has room to improve.
India reported 7.8% year-on-year GDP growth in the April-June 2026 quarter, while former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg argued it was effectively 2.6% in nominal terms.
Neelkanth Mishra called the criticism “ill-educated” and “egregiously wrong,” saying the revised GDP series improved data quality and methodology.
The new series uses 2022-23 as its base year, replacing the earlier 2011-12-based series; officials said figures from the two series should not be directly compared.
Mishra cited strong vehicle sales, tax collections, credit growth, construction and investment indicators as evidence of economic momentum.
Mishra acknowledged continued economic slack because real-wage growth remains weak, while Morgan Stanley raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.3% from 6.7%.
- Who
- Neelkanth Mishra defended the official estimate, while former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned it; the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation also rejected the criticism.
- What
- A dispute over whether India’s April-June 2026 GDP growth was 7.8% or effectively 2.6% because of changes to the national accounts series.
- When
- The debate followed release of the June-quarter results; Mishra posted his response on X on September 3, 2026.
- Where
- India; Mishra made his comments on X.
- Why
- The disagreement concerns the switch to a 2022-23 base year, revised GDP estimates, updated data sources and methodology, and whether the old and new series can be directly compared.
Critics of the 7.8% Estimate
Mishra and Government Defense
Impact of the revised base
Critics of the 7.8% Estimate
Subhash Chandra Garg argued that last year’s June-quarter nominal GDP was reduced from about ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore, making the current growth rate appear higher; he estimated growth at 2.6% in nominal terms and close to zero in real terms without the change.
Mishra and Government Defense
Mishra and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said the figures came from different GDP series and could not be directly compared. They attributed the revision to the new base year, improved data sources, updated indicators and methodological changes.
Credibility of the new methodology
Critics of the 7.8% Estimate
Critics questioned whether the new national accounts methodology and base-year change made the economy look stronger than it was.
Mishra and Government Defense
Mishra said the February 2026 series cleaned up the data, improved methodology and increased the credibility of real-output estimates. He said the base revision had been known to analysts since March.
Evidence of economic momentum
Critics of the 7.8% Estimate
The criticism implied that the headline growth rate might not accurately reflect underlying economic activity.
Mishra and Government Defense
Mishra pointed to robust vehicle dispatches, tax collections, credit growth, construction and investment indicators as difficult-to-manipulate evidence of stronger activity. He nevertheless acknowledged weak real-wage growth and remaining slack.
- Reported GDP growth
- 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June 2026 quarter
- Contested figure
- Garg argued that growth would have been 2.6% in nominal terms, and close to zero in real terms, without the revision
- New GDP base year
- 2022-23, replacing the 2011-12-based series
- Nominal GDP revision
- The June-quarter estimate for the previous fiscal year moved from ₹86.05 lakh crore under the old series to about ₹80.00 lakh crore under the revised series
- Vehicle indicators
- Passenger-vehicle dispatches rose 35% year-on-year in August, two-wheelers grew more than 20%, and commercial vehicles grew more than 40%
- Investment and output indicators
- Morgan Stanley cited strong credit growth, power demand, exports and gross fixed capital formation, which rose 11.9% year-on-year
- Growth forecast
- Morgan Stanley raised its FY27 GDP forecast to 7.3% from 6.7%
- Remaining weakness
- Mishra said weak real-wage growth indicated continued economic slack
Sources
‘Ill educated, egregiously wrong…’: Neelkanth Mishra says ‘2.6% GDP growth’ claim is obviously incorrect
World Bank's Neelkanth Mishra lashes out at India GDP critics as ‘ill-educated and egregiously wrong’
Ill-educated, egregiously wrong: World Bank ED on GDP
Neelkanth Mishra defends GDP data, calls criticism ‘egregiously wrong’
