Archive · 16 Nov 2025
AI Investments Fuel Tech Debt, Increasing Demand for Credit Protection
Big tech companies want to build super-smart computer systems called AI, and this requires borrowing a lot of money, like hundreds of billions of dollars.
Because they are borrowing so much, the people who lend the money and invest in these companies are getting worried.
They fear that if the AI projects don't make enough money, the companies might not be able to pay back their loans.
So, these investors are buying a type of insurance called credit default swaps to protect themselves from potential losses.
The cost of this insurance has gone up a lot, especially for companies like Oracle.
This shows that while AI is a huge focus, it also comes with risks that people are trying to guard against.
Tech companies are preparing to borrow hundreds of billions to fund artificial intelligence investments.
Lenders and investors are increasing their use of credit derivatives, like credit default swaps (CDS), to guard against potential defaults.
Trading volume and costs for credit protection on companies like Oracle have significantly increased.
Tech companies, utilities, and AI-related borrowers now form the largest segment of the investment-grade market, overtaking banks.
Concerns about the return on generative AI projects and the fast-changing nature of the tech industry are driving the demand for hedging.
- Who
- Tech companies (hyperscalers), lenders, money managers, investors, traders, banks, and borrowers linked to AI
- What
- Increased borrowing by tech companies for AI investments leading to a surge in demand for credit protection, such as single-name credit default swaps (CDS).
- When
- Recent weeks and months, with specific trading volume data for the six weeks ending November 7.
- Where
- Global capital markets, with significant activity in US corporate bond sales.
- Why
- To hedge against potential defaults as tech companies borrow hundreds of billions for AI investments, and to manage increased exposure to the rapidly growing and influential tech sector in capital markets.
Concerns on AI Returns and Tech Stability
Optimism for AI Investment and Market Influence
Return on Investment for Generative AI
Concerns on AI Returns and Tech Stability
A report indicates that 95% of organizations are experiencing zero return on investment from generative AI projects.
Optimism for AI Investment and Market Influence
Tech companies are preparing to borrow hundreds of billions for AI investments, suggesting a belief in future profitability despite current concerns.
Long-Term Viability of Tech Companies
Concerns on AI Returns and Tech Stability
The technology industry is characterized by rapid change, and current market leaders could become obsolete, increasing the risk of future defaults.
Optimism for AI Investment and Market Influence
The significant borrowing by tech giants like Meta and Oracle, and their dominance in the investment-grade market, indicate strong current positions and expected future growth.
Market Activity and Hedging
Concerns on AI Returns and Tech Stability
While single-name CDS trading has increased, it remains modest compared to the volume of anticipated debt issuances, and may not return to pre-financial crisis levels.
Optimism for AI Investment and Market Influence
There is a renewed and significant interest from clients in hedging discussions and single-name CDS, reflecting increased exposure and the growing influence of tech borrowers.
- Estimated Investment Grade Bonds for AI
- $1.5 trillion (JPMorgan estimate for next few years)
- Meta Platforms Bond Sale
- $30 billion (Late October, largest US corporate bond issuance of the year)
- Oracle Bond Sale
- $18 billion (September)
- Oracle CDS Cost Increase
- Doubled since September
- Oracle CDS Trading Volume Increase
- Rose to approx. $4.2 billion in six weeks ending Nov. 7 (vs. less than $200 million previous year)
- Tech Companies' Market Share
- Largest segment of the investment-grade market, surpassing banks