Archive · 3 Oct 2026
El Niño Expected to Dominate India’s Post-Monsoon Season
El Niño is a pattern of warmer ocean water in the Pacific that can affect weather far away.
The IMD expects it to be an important influence on India’s weather in the coming months.
Another climate pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to stay neutral.
That means it is not expected to give rainfall a strong extra boost.
The October-to-December rains matter a lot to parts of southern India.
India’s southwest monsoon this year brought less rain than usual, at about 87 per cent of its long-term average.
El Niño does not mean that every part of India will get too little rain.
Some places may still get normal or above-normal rainfall.
The IMD expects El Niño to remain the dominant climate influence during India’s post-monsoon period.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to stay neutral during the northeast monsoon, offering no strong additional rainfall support.
October to December rainfall is especially important for southern India, including Tamil Nadu and parts of neighboring states.
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with about 87 per cent of the long-period average, roughly 13 per cent below normal.
The outlook does not mean all regions will have deficient rainfall; some areas could receive normal or above-normal amounts.
- Who
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued the climate outlook; southern Indian states are among the areas affected.
- What
- El Niño is expected to dominate India’s post-monsoon weather, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral.
- When
- The outlook concerns the post-monsoon period, especially October to December, following the 2026 southwest monsoon.
- Where
- India, particularly southern peninsular regions including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Karnataka.
- Why
- A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is not expected to provide a strong rainfall-supporting influence to counter El Niño.
- Expected dominant climate signal
- El Niño
- Indian Ocean Dipole outlook
- Expected to remain neutral during the northeast monsoon
- Key rainfall period
- October to December
- 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall
- About 87 per cent of the long-period average
- Difference from normal
- Roughly 13 per cent below normal
- Regional qualification
- Some areas may still receive normal or above-normal rainfall