Archive · 23 Aug 2025
UniCredit Predicts Pound Will Fall Due to More BOE Rate Cuts
Imagine the UK's money, the pound, is like a toy car.
A bank called UniCredit thinks this car might lose value against the euro, another toy car.
They think the Bank of England, which controls interest rates, will lower them quickly.
This is because they believe people might spend less money as the job market weakens.
Other experts don't agree, but UniCredit is sticking to its prediction that the pound might drop significantly.
If this happens, it would be a big deal, like when things were really tough during the financial crisis or the pandemic.
This is because of worries about the UK's economy.
UniCredit predicts the pound will fall about 10% against the euro by the end of 2026.
This is a contrarian view compared to the market's expectation for the UK currency to remain stable.
UniCredit believes the Bank of England will cut interest rates faster than expected due to a weakening labor market.
The bank expects interest rates to drop to 2.75% by the end of 2026, contrasting with market predictions of 3.60%.
A fall to 0.95 per euro would be a crisis-type level, according to UniCredit.
- Who
- UniCredit SpA.
- What
- UniCredit predicts a 10% drop in the pound against the euro.
- When
- By the end of 2026.
- Where
- Against the euro.
- Why
- Due to expectations of faster Bank of England interest rate cuts and a weakening UK labor market.
UniCredit's View
Market's View
Interest Rate Cuts
UniCredit's View
The Bank of England will cut interest rates faster than the market expects.
Market's View
The market expects less aggressive rate cuts.
Labor Market Impact
UniCredit's View
The UK labor market will weaken, hurting consumer spending and pushing inflation down.
Market's View
The labor market is currently in better shape than many economists expected.
- Predicted Pound Drop
- 10% against euro by end-2026
- Current Pound Value (approx.)
- 0.86 per euro
- UniCredit's Interest Rate Forecast
- 2.75% by end-2026
- Market's Interest Rate Forecast
- 3.60% by end-2026
- UniCredit Currency Strategist
- Roberto Mialich