Archive · 7 Oct 2026
India’s Real Interest Rate Nears Negative Territory After RBI Hike
The Reserve Bank of India has raised the interest rate it charges banks.
But prices are rising quickly, so the inflation-adjusted interest rate has fallen close to zero.
If prices rise faster than the policy rate, the real interest rate can become negative.
That can make borrowing more attractive, but may discourage people from saving and put pressure on the currency.
The RBI says inflation could be affected by the monsoon, oil prices and other supply problems.
One economist thinks the real rate may briefly turn negative, while further rate increases could push it back above zero.
The rupee also weakened, amid higher oil prices and foreign investors selling Indian shares.
The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023.
After the hike, India’s real policy rate fell to 0.68 percentage points, its lowest level in three years.
The last negative real policy rate was recorded in August 2023; inflation then was around 7% and the repo rate was 6.5%.
The RBI raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% and its CPI inflation forecast to 5.2%, citing supply-side risks.
An economist expects the real rate could turn negative in the short term, but further rate hikes may later return it to positive territory.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India and Indian borrowers, savers and investors.
- What
- The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50%, while the real policy rate fell to 0.68 percentage points and could turn negative.
- When
- The rate increase was announced Wednesday; the article does not specify a calendar date.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- Inflation is rising faster than the policy rate, while supply risks and global uncertainty complicate the RBI’s decisions.
Negative rates may support activity
Further tightening may restore positive rates
What a negative real rate could mean
Negative rates may support activity
Emkay Global Financial Services economist Madhavi Arora said a negative real rate generally supports economic activity by encouraging credit growth and consumption.
Further tightening may restore positive rates
The article notes that prolonged negative real rates can discourage household savings and add pressure on the currency.
Likely direction of policy
Negative rates may support activity
With CPI inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, Arora said the real interest rate is likely to turn negative in the short term.
Further tightening may restore positive rates
Arora said the RBI’s calibrated-tightening stance suggests further rate hikes are likely in the coming months, which could make the real rate positive again.
- Repo rate after increase
- 5.50%, up 25 basis points
- Current real policy rate
- 0.68 percentage points, its lowest level in three years
- Last negative real policy rate
- August 2023
- FY27 real GDP growth forecast
- 7.1%, raised from 6.7%
- CPI inflation forecast
- 5.2%, increased by 20 basis points
- Rupee close
- ₹96.78 per US dollar on Wednesday, down 36 paise
- Foreign sales of Indian shares
- Around $30 billion so far this year