Archive · 1 Jan 2026
RBI Warns of Rising NBFC Bad Loans and Unsecured Credit Risks
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has warned that bad loans in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are expected to rise.
Under normal conditions, the percentage of bad loans is predicted to increase from 2.3% to 2.9% by September 2026.
This could cause the overall financial strength of NBFCs to decrease slightly, but it will still be above the required minimum.
However, some NBFCs might struggle to meet the minimum financial strength requirements, especially if the economic situation worsens.
The RBI also found that a few NBFCs might have trouble managing their money in the next year.
Additionally, the RBI noted that unsecured loans, which are loans not backed by collateral, now account for the highest share of repayment defaults in the banking system.
These loans are popular because they can be availed easily and used for any purpose, but they also carry the highest risk of default.
Fintech lenders are playing a significant role in expanding unsecured credit, with over 70% of their loan book comprising unsecured loans, and more than half of these loans are extended to borrowers below 35 years of age.
Young borrowers, particularly those under 25, are the most likely to default, with higher stress levels recorded in tier-2 cities and rural regions.
System-level GNPA ratio for NBFCs expected to rise from 2.3% to 2.9% by September 2026 under baseline scenario.
Aggregate CRAR for NBFCs projected to decline from 22.8% to 21.7% over the same period.
Eight NBFCs may fall below the minimum CRAR threshold of 15% under baseline scenario.
Unsecured retail loans account for 53.1% of all retail loan defaults across scheduled commercial banks.
Fintech lenders have over 70% of their loan book in unsecured loans, with more than half extended to borrowers below 35 years of age.
- Who
- Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), banks, fintech lenders, and young borrowers
- What
- Rising bad loans in NBFCs and high default rates in unsecured loans
- When
- Projected from September 2025 to September 2026
- Where
- India
- Why
- Due to weakening asset quality, economic stress, and high-risk lending practices
- System-level GNPA ratio (Baseline Scenario)
- 2.9% by September 2026
- Aggregate CRAR (Baseline Scenario)
- 21.7% by September 2026
- Regulatory minimum CRAR
- 15%
- NBFCs below CRAR threshold (Baseline)
- 8
- NBFCs below CRAR threshold (Medium Stress)
- 11
- NBFCs with liquidity gap (Baseline)
- 3
- NBFCs with liquidity gap (Severe Stress)
- 7
- Microfinance credit contraction (H1 2025-26)
- 8.5%
- Credit costs for NBFC-MFIs (September 2025)
- 15.5%
- Unsecured retail loan defaults
- 53.1% of total retail loan defaults
- Unsecured loan NPA ratio
- 1.8%
- Fintech unsecured loan share
- 70% of total loan book
- Credit card NPAs (December 2025)
- Rs 6,742 crore
- Personal loan default rate
- 3.6% for loans overdue >90 days
Sources
NBFC bad loans seen rising under baseline scenario
No bank to fall short of capital requirements, even under severe stress: RBI FSR
RBI flags higher slippages, write-offs in private banks' unsecured loan books
Nine NBFCs would breach minimum capital requirement limit if their top 3 borrowers default: RBI
RBI stress test findings: Banks’ gross non-performing assets may improve to 1.9% by FY27 from 2.1% in Sept 2025
Equity markets display resilience despite underperformance: RBI report
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI,: Elara warns of complex NIMs challenges, which stocks to buy
Slippages in unsecured retail loans go up to 53.1 % of total retail loans for banks: FSR
The Riskiest Loan: This Type Of Credit Has The Highest Default Rate In India
Up to 4 banks may have to tap buffers in adverse scenarios
RBI eases capital norms for NBFCs financing high-quality infrastructure projects