Archive · 5 Oct 2026
Quebec Election Campaign Focuses on Trump, Not Independence
People in Quebec are voting for a new provincial government.
The Parti Quebecois may win, but many voters are thinking more about Donald Trump’s tariffs than about leaving Canada.
Those tariffs affect important Quebec industries, including aluminum, steel and manufacturing.
The Parti Quebecois says it will wait until Trump is out of office before holding an independence referendum.
Polls suggest most Quebecers do not currently support separation.
Many voters also want a change after eight years of Coalition Avenir Quebec rule.
They are concerned about high prices and healthcare, too.
The election result could affect Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to promote Canadian unity.
Quebec voters are set to choose a provincial government on Monday, with polls suggesting the Parti Quebecois could defeat the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec.
The campaign has focused heavily on Donald Trump’s tariffs and their effects on Quebec’s aluminum, steel and manufacturing sectors.
The Parti Quebecois has promised to delay an independence referendum until Trump leaves office, despite its earlier pledge to hold one in its first term.
A Leger poll put the Parti Quebecois at 29% support, ahead of the Liberals at 25%, Conservatives at 20% and Coalition Avenir Quebec at 14%.
Polls cited in the report found 30% support for separation and 77% of voters wanted a change in government.
- Who
- Quebec voters; the Parti Quebecois, Coalition Avenir Quebec and other provincial parties.
- What
- A provincial election in which the Parti Quebecois is polling ahead while campaign attention has centered on Trump’s tariffs and Quebec independence.
- When
- Monday, with voting scheduled from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern time; the article is dated October 5.
- Where
- Quebec, Canada.
- Why
- Voters are weighing dissatisfaction with the governing party, economic concerns including tariffs and prices, healthcare pressures, and the question of Quebec independence.
Arguments for Independence
Arguments for Caution
Quebec’s future
Arguments for Independence
The Parti Quebecois argues that Quebec can better preserve its French culture and language by separating from Canada, and its leader has said he would call another independence vote.
Arguments for Caution
Polls cited in the report show only 30% support separation, and analysts say a Parti Quebecois win may reflect dissatisfaction with the government rather than support for independence.
Timing of a referendum
Arguments for Independence
The Parti Quebecois had promised a referendum in its first term and its leader defended voters’ right to consider Quebec’s future.
Arguments for Caution
The party now says it will refrain from holding a referendum until Trump is out of office, and polling suggests support could rise if it ruled out a referendum.
Responding to Trump’s tariffs
Arguments for Independence
The governing Coalition Avenir Quebec presented itself as able to fight the threat posed by Trump and the tariffs.
Arguments for Caution
The Parti Quebecois has ruled out bilateral talks with Washington for tariff relief; a cited political science professor said trying to make a deal with Trump would be unpopular in Quebec.
- Leger poll: Parti Quebecois
- 29% support in a poll released October 3.
- Other parties in the poll
- Liberals 25%; Conservatives 20%; Coalition Avenir Quebec 14%.
- Support for separation
- 30% of Quebecers, according to polls cited in the report.
- Desire for a change
- 77% of voters told Leger they wanted a change.
- Legislature
- Quebec’s provincial legislature has 127 seats.
- Voting hours
- 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern time; a provisional result was expected by midnight.
- Tariff-affected sectors
- Aluminum, steel and manufacturing.