Archive · 23 Sep 2026
Super El Niño Could Cause 15,800 Extra Indian Heat Deaths
El Niño is a weather pattern caused by unusually warm water in part of the Pacific Ocean.
It can change rainfall and make some places much hotter than usual.
Researchers expect land temperatures around the world to be about 1.2°C above normal during the forecast period.
They also expect 44% more extremely hot days than in an ordinary year.
In India, about 15,800 more people than usual could die from heat between September 2026 and February 2027.
Nearly half of these deaths, about 7,400, could happen from December through February.
Southern India may face greater winter risk because its usual temperatures are already warm enough to cause heat-related deaths.
Researchers say deaths in India and Pakistan could continue rising when summer arrives.
Heat alerts, cooling centres, hydration stations, medical support and protection for outdoor workers could reduce the toll.
India is projected to record roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027.
About 7,400 of India’s projected deaths could occur between December 2026 and February 2027.
Global land temperatures could average 1.2°C above normal, with 44% more extremely hot days.
Researchers estimate 451,000 excess deaths worldwide since the current El Niño began, including 239,000 during the forecast period.
India ranks fourth among projected country-level heat mortality totals, while warnings, cooling centres and worker protections could save lives.
- Who
- Researchers from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab produced the projections, which concern populations exposed to unusual heat.
- What
- The report projects roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India and 451,000 excess deaths worldwide linked to the current El Niño episode.
- When
- The India forecast covers September 2026 through February 2027, with about 7,400 projected deaths between December and February; the researchers expect India’s risk to continue into summer.
- Where
- India is projected to be the fourth hardest-hit country, while the Sahel, Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Brazil are also identified as heavily affected areas.
- Why
- El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific, can suppress the Indian monsoon and contributes to unusually high temperatures that increase heat-related mortality.
- Projected Indian excess deaths
- Roughly 15,800 from September 2026 through February 2027
- Indian winter projection
- About 7,400 additional heat-related deaths from December 2026 through February 2027
- Global excess deaths
- 451,000 estimated since the current El Niño began in June
- Global forecast-period deaths
- 239,000 projected from September 2026 through February 2027
- Expected global land warming
- 1.2°C above normal
- Increase in extremely hot days
- 44% above what would normally be expected
- Projected Indian ranking
- Fourth among countries, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan
- Suggested interventions
- Heat alerts, cooling centres, hydration stations, worker protections and expanded health outreach
