Archive · 9 Oct 2026
Sudan Aid Groups Lead Speculation for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner is expected to be announced on Friday.
The committee keeps the names of nominees secret for 50 years.
That means people outside the committee do not know the official list.
Some prediction markets think Sudan’s volunteer aid groups have a chance.
These groups help people affected by the war by providing food and medical care.
Other possible contenders include a Ukrainian children’s advocate and international courts.
The International Space Station is also being discussed because countries work together there.
Donald Trump and other well-known figures are also mentioned, but nobody outside the committee can say who will win.
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is set to be announced on Friday, but the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not disclosed nominees’ names.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which provide food, medical help and other essential support, lead some prediction markets.
Ukrainian children’s rights advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine are among contenders identified by the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
The International Court of Justice, International Criminal Court and International Space Station are also mentioned as possible contenders.
Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Pope Leo XIV feature in public speculation, but prediction markets cannot determine the winner.
- Who
- Possible contenders include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine, international courts, the International Space Station, Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Pope Leo XIV.
- What
- Prediction markets and peace researchers are discussing potential contenders for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
- When
- The prize is set to be announced on Friday; the article does not specify the date.
- Where
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee makes the decision; the article does not specify an announcement location.
- Why
- The contenders are being discussed for work or roles associated with humanitarian aid, children’s rights, international law, cooperation or diplomacy.
- Nomination total
- The committee received 287 nominations: 208 individuals and 79 organisations.
- Nominee confidentiality
- Nominees’ identities remain confidential for 50 years.
- Prediction-market leader
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms had an approximately 16% probability on Kalshi, as reported on Thursday.
- Emergency Response Rooms
- The volunteer network provides services including community kitchens and emergency medical assistance.
- Other institutional contenders
- The International Court of Justice, International Criminal Court and International Space Station are among those discussed.
- Research institute
- The Peace Research Institute Oslo included Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children among potential contenders.
- Decision authority
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee makes the final decision; prediction-market estimates are not the committee’s assessment.