Archive · 7 Dec 2025
Pharma Sector Faces Post-Revlimid Challenges and Semaglutide Opportunities
The pharma sector has seen strong growth post-Covid, with top companies growing their revenues and earnings significantly.
However, the sector faces a challenge with the upcoming expiry of the Revlimid patent in 2026, which has been a major revenue source for several companies.
At the same time, there's a new opportunity with Semaglutide, a drug for diabetes and weight loss, which could drive future growth.
The transition from Revlimid to Semaglutide may not be smooth, and companies will need to invest heavily and execute well to maintain their profitability.
Investors should expect some margin compression in 2026 as companies navigate this transition.
Top 10 pharma companies delivered 10% revenue CAGR and 18% earnings growth in FY21-25, with a 400 bps PAT margin expansion.
The Nifty Pharma index lagged Nifty50 over five years due to the base effect from its 2020 outperformance.
Dr. Reddy's and Zydus Lifesciences reported 15% revenue CAGR, driven by the generic Revlimid launch.
Revlimid earnings are expected to plunge post-January 2026 due to patent expiry and increased competition.
Semaglutide presents a large, consistent, and high-value opportunity for Indian generic companies, with several aiming for first-wave launches in 2026.
- Who
- Top 10 pharma companies, including Dr. Reddy's, Zydus Lifesciences, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Aurobindo, and Lupin
- What
- Post-Covid performance review and future outlook for the pharma sector
- When
- FY21-25 performance and outlook for 2026
- Where
- Global markets, with a focus on the US, India, and other emerging markets
- Why
- To assess the impact of Revlimid patent expiry and the potential of Semaglutide
- Revenue Growth
- 10% CAGR for top 10 pharma companies in FY21-25
- Earnings Growth
- 18% earnings growth in FY21-25
- PAT Margin Expansion
- 400 bps in the last five years
- Semaglutide Opportunity
- Large, consistent, and high-value market for GLP-1RA drugs
- Revlimid Patent Expiry
- January 2026
- Semaglutide Launch Timeline
- Dr. Reddy's delayed to H2CY26; others aim for first wave in India