Archive · 17 Sep 2026
India Rice Production Faces Steepest Fall in Nearly Two Decades
India may harvest much less rice this year than last year.
The expected decrease is about 10 million metric tons.
This would be the biggest drop in nearly 20 years.
The main reason is that many rice-growing areas have received too little rain.
Farmers also planted less summer rice than they did last year.
Some reservoirs have less water, which could affect winter rice planting too.
Lower production is already pushing local and export rice prices higher.
However, India has very large rice reserves from earlier harvests.
Those reserves may let the country keep exporting large amounts of rice.
India’s rice production could decline by about 10 million metric tons this year, or nearly 6.5% from last year’s record.
The projected fall would be the country’s largest since the 2009/10 season and its first production decline in a decade.
India has received 15% less rainfall than normal since June 1, with deficits reaching 42% in some rice-growing states.
Summer-sown rice acreage was nearly 4% below the previous year, while lower reservoir levels could reduce winter planting.
Record rice reserves of 59.6 million tons may allow India to maintain exports despite lower production and rising prices.
- Who
- India’s rice farmers, exporters, government agencies, and rice buyers are affected.
- What
- India’s rice production is projected to fall by about 10 million metric tons, while exports may remain at record levels.
- When
- The projection concerns the 2026 crop year; the report was published on September 17, 2026.
- Where
- The decline is expected across India, with particularly reduced yield potential in southern and eastern states.
- Why
- Below-normal rainfall reduced crop yields, while lower reservoir levels may also reduce winter-sown rice acreage.
- Projected production decline
- About 10 million metric tons
- Expected percentage decline
- Nearly 6.5% from last year’s record 154 million metric tons
- Rainfall deficit
- 15% below normal nationally since the monsoon began on June 1
- Largest regional deficit
- Up to 42% in some rice-growing states
- Summer-sown rice area
- 42.68 million hectares as of September 11, nearly 4% below the previous year
- Share of production
- Summer-sown rice accounts for more than 80% of India’s total production
- Rice reserves
- 59.6 million tons, including unmilled paddy, as of September 1
