Archive · 18 Nov 2025
India, China: Hypothetical Economic Rapprochement in 'Trade Outside the US' Scenario
Imagine if India and China, instead of competing, worked together for a few years.
They could share manufacturing jobs, technology, and tourism.
This could help both countries grow and might even change how they see each other.
It's a big 'what if', but it's an interesting idea to think about.
India and China could cooperate in manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure for mutual growth
China could shift low-margin production to India, while India exports software and digital solutions to China
Joint tourism and people-to-people initiatives could revive cultural ties
A 'Trade Outside the US' (TOTUS) framework could be feasible with cautious architecture and functional convergence
Partial alignment based on economic logic is possible, even if full rapprochement is improbable in the short term
- Who
- India and China
- What
- Hypothetically cooperate in trade, technology, and tourism for mutual growth
- When
- Over the next 5-7 years
- Where
- Asia
- Why
- To increase shared prosperity and regional resilience
Proponents of TOTUS
Skeptics of TOTUS
Economic Benefits
Proponents of TOTUS
Mutual growth, regional stability, and a post-Western economic order
Skeptics of TOTUS
Unrealistic expectations, potential diplomatic risks
Feasibility
Proponents of TOTUS
Partial alignment is possible based on economic logic
Skeptics of TOTUS
Full rapprochement is improbable in the short term
- Current Status
- Frozen bilateral relationship due to mistrust and border disputes
- Potential Benefits
- Mutual growth, regional stability, and a post-Western economic order
- Challenges
- Mistrust, domestic nationalism, and strategic autonomy
- Proposed Framework
- Clear project-level governance, neutral currency settlements, and depoliticized sectors
- Potential Impact
- A turning point for Asia, signaling cooperation over confrontation