Archive · 1 Sep 2026
Venezuela Oil Output May Take Decades to Recover
Venezuela used to produce more than 3 million barrels of oil each day.
Today, it produces about 1 million barrels daily.
A new agreement involving the United States and private companies could help increase production soon.
Rystad Energy says the first increases will come from oil wells that already exist.
New oil projects in the Orinoco oil belt would take longer to develop.
Rystad expects Venezuela could produce more than 3 million barrels a day again by 2050.
This would require about $85 billion in investment.
The plan may face political uncertainty because people from different political groups in Venezuela have criticized it.
Venezuelan oil production is currently about 1 million barrels per day, roughly one-third of its 1990s peak.
Rystad Energy forecasts existing wells will add 157,000 barrels per day by 2027 and 680,000 by 2030.
New Orinoco oil-belt projects are expected to begin meaningful production around 2035 and reach nearly 2 million barrels per day by 2050.
Combined production could reach 2.3 million barrels per day in 2035 and exceed 3 million by 2050.
Rystad estimates that returning production to those levels will require about $85 billion in investment from 2027 to 2040.
- Who
- Venezuela, the United States government, private companies, and Rystad Energy.
- What
- A proposed United States partnership involving Venezuelan oil reserves and Rystad Energy’s forecast for production recovery.
- When
- The near-term production increase is forecast to begin by 2027, with output exceeding 3 million barrels per day potentially by 2050.
- Where
- Venezuela, including existing oil fields and the Orinoco oil belt.
- Why
- The partnership is intended to give the United States access to Venezuelan oil and help refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while investment would support higher Venezuelan production.
- Current Venezuelan output
- About 1 million barrels per day.
- Historical peak
- More than 3 million barrels per day in the 1990s.
- Existing-well production
- Forecast to rise from about 157,000 incremental barrels per day in 2027 to 680,000 in 2030.
- Orinoco production
- Forecast to reach 840,000 barrels per day by 2040 and nearly 2 million by 2050.
- Total output forecast
- About 2.3 million barrels per day in 2035 and above 3 million by 2050.
- Estimated investment
- About $85 billion from 2027 to 2040.
- United States share
- The United States would control 55% of joint-venture production under the announced arrangement.