Archive · 30 Sep 2026
Softer August PCE Inflation Meets Stronger U.S. Job Growth
The United States released new information about prices and jobs.
Prices rose a little less than experts expected in August.
However, inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
People earned slightly more money and spent considerably more in August.
Private companies also hired 90,000 workers in September.
Education, health care, and leisure businesses added many of those jobs.
Higher oil prices could keep making things more expensive.
The Federal Reserve will use these numbers when considering interest-rate decisions later this year.
The headline PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month in August 2026, below the 0.4% forecast.
Core PCE inflation increased 0.2% monthly, while annual headline and core inflation stayed at 3.4% and 3.0%.
Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income 0.3%, and consumer spending 0.9% in August.
U.S. private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, exceeding the 70,000 forecast and August’s revised 36,000.
Elevated oil prices and strong employment could influence Federal Reserve decisions at its October and December meetings.
- Who
- The Federal Reserve, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. private employers are central to the report.
- What
- August PCE inflation was softer than forecast, while September private-sector job growth was stronger than expected.
- When
- The PCE data covers August 2026, the jobs data covers September 2026, and Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for October 27–28 and December 8–9.
- Where
- The data concerns the United States.
- Why
- The inflation and employment figures may affect market expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, while elevated oil prices could keep inflation persistent.
Case for Caution on Further Rate Hikes
Case for Continued Rate Hikes
Inflation reading
Case for Caution on Further Rate Hikes
Headline and core monthly PCE inflation both came in below forecasts, which could support a less aggressive policy response.
Case for Continued Rate Hikes
Annual headline and core inflation remained at 3.4% and 3.0%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective.
Economic momentum
Case for Caution on Further Rate Hikes
The softer-than-expected PCE figures suggest price pressures may be easing.
Case for Continued Rate Hikes
Private-sector hiring rebounded to 90,000, consumer spending rose 0.9%, and pay growth was described as solid.
Energy costs
Case for Caution on Further Rate Hikes
If inflation cools despite elevated oil prices, policymakers may have room to wait for more data.
Case for Continued Rate Hikes
Oil remained above $100 and was up 7% over the month, potentially keeping inflation sticky and increasing pressure for further rate hikes.
- Headline monthly PCE
- Up 0.3% in August 2026, versus a 0.4% forecast
- Core monthly PCE
- Up 0.2%, excluding food and energy, versus a 0.3% forecast
- Annual PCE inflation
- Headline inflation held at 3.4%; core inflation held at 3.0%
- Personal consumption expenditures
- Increased $190.8 billion, or 0.9%, in August
- September private-sector jobs
- Increased by 90,000, compared with a 70,000 forecast
- Largest hiring gains
- Education and health care added 55,000 jobs; leisure and hospitality added 22,000
- Upcoming FOMC meetings
- Scheduled for October 27–28 and December 8–9, 2026