Archive · 1 Sep 2026
Jefferies Sees 33% Reliance Industries Upside Amid Refinery Disruptions
Jefferies is a brokerage that studies companies and their shares.
It believes Reliance Industries could benefit because several large refineries have slowed or stopped working.
This has reduced the amount of fuel available around the world.
Fuel supplies are especially tight because inventories in Europe and the United States are at five-year lows.
When fuel is scarce, refining profits can increase.
Reliance Industries has a large refinery in a special economic zone that is not covered by the current windfall taxes.
Its petrochemical business may also benefit from damaged facilities and disrupted exports in the Middle East.
Jefferies expects these conditions to help Reliance Industries’ earnings and has predicted potential upside in its share price.
Jefferies retained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,710, implying 33% upside.
Around 4% of global refinery throughput has been lost, with disruptions concentrated in the Middle East and Russia.
European diesel and US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows, while fuel cracks and Singapore refining margins have risen.
Reliance Industries’ SEZ refinery, which handles most of its refining capacity, is not subject to current windfall taxes.
Jefferies expects refining and petrochemical strength to support Reliance Industries’ FY27 earnings and forecasts 10% consolidated EBITDA CAGR through FY26-29.
- Who
- Reliance Industries and Jefferies, the brokerage that issued the positive assessment.
- What
- Jefferies retained a Buy rating on Reliance Industries and set a Rs 1,710 target price, citing tighter global fuel and petrochemical supplies.
- When
- The analysis concerns FY27, with Jefferies expecting supply tightness to continue through calendar year 2026.
- Where
- The disruptions are concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, while low inventories have been reported in Europe and the United States.
- Why
- Refinery outages, physical damage, conflicts and disrupted exports have reduced global supplies and strengthened refining and petrochemical margins.
- Jefferies rating
- Buy
- Target price
- Rs 1,710
- Implied upside
- 33%
- Global refinery throughput lost
- Around 4%
- Singapore Gross Refining Margin
- Averaged $21.2 per barrel in the second quarter of FY27 to date
- Expected EBITDA growth
- 10% CAGR between FY26 and FY29
- Petrochemical margin increase
- Average PE, PP and PET margins were up 64% in the second quarter of FY27 to date versus the end of February