Archive · 26 Aug 2026
Oil Boom Misses 2026 Forecast as Hormuz Stays Closed
Some analysts thought the Iran war would make oil very expensive.
They expected prices to rise above $100 for each barrel.
They were especially worried that the Strait of Hormuz might stay closed for months.
The strait is still mostly closed to normal ships six months into the war.
However, oil prices have not risen as much as expected.
Brent crude has not finished a month above $100.
Recently, it has traded just below $90.
The expected 2026 oil boom therefore did not happen.
Analysts initially predicted oil prices would rise well above $100 per barrel during the Iran war.
Those forecasts were especially tied to a months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Six months into the war, the strait remains mostly closed to regular traffic.
Brent crude has not settled above $100 during the past month.
Brent crude has recently traded just under $90 per barrel.
- Who
- Analysts, oil traders, and the markets are involved.
- What
- Oil prices have remained below the worst-case forecasts despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed.
- When
- Six months into the Iran war, with prices recently assessed during 2026.
- Where
- The disruption centers on the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude is the international benchmark discussed.
- Why
- Analysts expected a prolonged closure of the strait to restrict oil traffic and push prices above $100 per barrel.
- Initial forecast
- Several analysts predicted oil prices would rise well above $100 per barrel.
- Key risk
- The forecasts were linked particularly to the Strait of Hormuz staying closed for months.
- War timeline
- The article describes conditions six months into the Iran war.
- Strait status
- The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed to regular traffic.
- Price benchmark
- Brent crude is identified as the international oil benchmark.
- Recent Brent price
- Brent crude has lately traded just under $90 per barrel.
- $100 threshold
- Brent crude has not settled above $100 during the past month.