Archive · 29 Jul 2026
Treasury yields fall as oil prices drop ahead of Fed decision
Treasury yields are going down because oil prices are dropping.
This is happening because people think there might be a resolution to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which would mean less disruption in oil supplies.
The Federal Reserve is also expected to make a decision about interest rates soon, and there's a chance they might raise them.
The 10-year Treasury yield has been falling for three days in a row, and the 30-year yield is also down.
The market is pricing in about a 30% chance of a rate hike.
Oil prices have dropped significantly from their highs last week.
The Fed's decision will be important for the economy and markets.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, with the 10-year note on track for its first three-day decline in a month.
Oil prices continued to ease on hopes for a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is anticipated on Wednesday, with a 29.4% chance of a rate hike.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.602%, and the 30-year yield dropped to 5.095%.
The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.275%, poised for its biggest daily drop since July 15.
- Who
- U.S. Treasury market traders, Federal Reserve
- What
- Treasury yields falling, oil prices dropping, Fed policy decision anticipated
- When
- July 28, 2023
- Where
- New York, United States
- Why
- Oil prices easing on hopes for resolution to U.S.-Iran conflict, anticipation of Fed interest rate decision
Market Optimists
Market Pessimists
Fed Rate Hike Expectations
Market Optimists
Expect a rate hike, citing recent economic data and inflation concerns.
Market Pessimists
Believe the Fed will hold rates steady, arguing that current economic conditions do not warrant a hike.
Oil Price Impact
Market Optimists
See lower oil prices as a sign of easing geopolitical tensions, reducing inflationary pressures.
Market Pessimists
Warn that oil prices could rise again, leading to higher inflation and potential Fed rate hikes.
- Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield
- 4.602%
- 30-year Treasury yield
- 5.095%
- U.S. crude oil price
- $79.55 per barrel
- Brent crude oil price
- $84.58 per barrel
- Probability of Fed rate hike
- 29.4%
- 2-year Treasury yield
- 4.275%
- 5-year TIPS breakeven rate
- 2.169%
- 10-year TIPS breakeven rate
- 2.195%