Archive · 1 Sep 2026
Taiwan Conflict Risks Could Catch Global Markets Unprepared
The United States and China disagree about Taiwan, and their rivalry may last a long time.
One expert, Brands, said the problem cannot be solved only by meetings between national leaders.
He warned that China might use a customs quarantine or economic blockade instead of invading Taiwan.
Such actions could interrupt trade and the supply of important technology products.
Markets may not know how to prepare for an event that is unlikely but could cause enormous damage.
Elections in Taiwan and the United States are scheduled for 2028, which Brands identified as a potentially risky period.
He also said countries and businesses are trying to become less dependent on vulnerable supply chains.
His main message was that investors should pay more attention to geopolitics over the next five to ten years.
The US-China rivalry over Taiwan is described as structural and unlikely to be resolved through leader-level diplomacy alone.
A potential 2028 risk period includes scheduled elections in both Taiwan and the United States.
China could consider measures such as a customs quarantine or economic blockade rather than an outright invasion.
A Taiwan conflict could disrupt global trade, technology supply chains, companies and investment flows.
Investors are being urged to weigh geopolitical risks as the global economy becomes more fragmented and strategically competitive.
- Who
- The United States, China, Taiwan and investors are central to the issue; the warning was made by Brands.
- What
- Analysts are warning that markets may be unprepared for a US-China conflict involving Taiwan, including a possible quarantine or blockade.
- When
- The article identifies 2028 as a potentially heightened-risk period and discusses the next five to ten years.
- Where
- Taiwan and the surrounding regional trade routes are the focus.
- Why
- Taiwan's importance to technology supply chains and regional trade means a conflict could have broad economic consequences.
- Potential actions
- The article says China might consider a customs quarantine or economic blockade, not necessarily an outright invasion.
- Potential risk period
- Elections are scheduled in Taiwan and the United States in 2028.
- Market challenge
- Brands said markets have limited experience pricing low-probability events with potentially enormous economic effects.
- Supply-chain exposure
- Taiwan's importance to global technology supply chains could amplify the effects of a conflict or blockade.
- Broader economic shift
- The global economy is described as moving from post-Cold War integration toward fragmentation and strategic competition.
- Investor guidance
- Investors are encouraged to include geopolitical analysis alongside conventional economic indicators.
- Historical comparison
- Brands cited the Cuban Missile Crisis and said the Dow fell about 7% during that confrontation.