Archive · 11 Sep 2026
US Climate Centre Sees 75% Chance of Historic El Niño
Scientists think a very strong El Niño may develop.
El Niño is a climate pattern involving unusually warm ocean water in the Pacific.
The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 75% chance of an especially strong event.
Ocean water in the eastern Pacific is already more than 3°C warmer than average.
Winds, rainfall, and warmer water below the surface also suggest that the event is strengthening.
The highest chance of a very strong El Niño is expected between September-November and November-January.
El Niño often brings hotter and drier weather to India.
However, a stronger El Niño does not always cause equally stronger weather effects.
The US Climate Prediction Center gives a 75% chance of a very strong El Niño event.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation index could exceed 2.5°C, above the 2°C threshold for a very strong event.
Eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3°C during the past month.
The strongest probabilities are forecast from September-November through November-January, then gradually decline.
India could experience hotter and drier conditions, although stronger El Niño impacts are not guaranteed to be proportionally stronger.
- Who
- The US Climate Prediction Center and World Meteorological Organization are cited in forecasts and warnings about the event.
- What
- Forecasters are assessing a potentially very strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation event, with a 75% chance of reaching historic intensity.
- When
- The highest probabilities are forecast from September-November through November-January; the linked warning says the event could intensify through February 2027.
- Where
- The strongest ocean and atmospheric signals are in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, with possible effects in India.
- Why
- Unusually warm Pacific waters, warmer subsurface water, westerly winds, and increased rainfall indicate that El Niño is strengthening.
Potentially Historic Event
Impacts Remain Uncertain
Strength of the El Niño
Potentially Historic Event
Ocean temperatures, subsurface warmth, winds, and rainfall patterns indicate that the event is rapidly strengthening and could exceed 2.5°C.
Impacts Remain Uncertain
The forecast describes a probability rather than a certainty, and the event's final strength remains subject to change.
Weather consequences
Potentially Historic Event
A very strong El Niño could increase the likelihood of significant weather effects, including hotter and drier conditions in India.
Impacts Remain Uncertain
The Climate Prediction Center cautions that greater El Niño intensity does not necessarily produce proportionately stronger weather impacts.
- Probability
- 75% chance of a very strong El Niño, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.
- Potential index
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation index could exceed 2.5°C.
- Very strong threshold
- An index above 2°C is used to classify a very strong El Niño.
- Ocean temperatures
- Eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3°C over the past month.
- Peak forecast period
- The highest probabilities run from September-November through November-January.
- Possible India impacts
- El Niño is generally associated with hotter and drier conditions in India.