Archive · 3 Jan 2026
NALCO's Stock Rally: Analysts vs. Market Veterans
NALCO is a big company that makes aluminum.
Some experts, called analysts, said the company's stock was too expensive and told people to sell.
But the stock price kept going up, and now it's much higher than what the analysts predicted.
The company is making a lot of money right now, with really high profits and margins.
Some market experts think this is because aluminum is becoming more valuable, and NALCO is good at making it cheaply.
But there are also risks, like if China starts selling a lot of cheap aluminum, which could make NALCO's profits go down.
So, some people think the stock is still a good buy, while others think it's too expensive and might go down.
NALCO's stock price has rallied to Rs 330, defying analyst downgrades and setting new 52-week highs.
The company reported a net profit of Rs 1,430 crore in Q2FY26, a 37% year-on-year increase.
Operating margins (EBITDA) expanded to 45% in FY25, up from 22% in FY24.
NALCO declared an interim dividend of Rs 4 per share in November, signaling strong cash flow.
Analysts warn of risks, including potential price crashes due to Chinese aluminum flooding the market and execution risks from a planned Rs 30,000 crore capex.
- Who
- National Aluminium Company (NALCO), a Navaratna Central Public Sector Enterprise under the Ministry of Mines
- What
- A significant rally in NALCO's stock price, defying analyst downgrades and setting new 52-week highs
- When
- As of 2nd January 2026, with a 30% rally since November 2025
- Where
- India, with NALCO being one of the largest integrated primary producers of aluminium in Asia
- Why
- Strong operational performance, high margins, and institutional appetite driving the stock price up, despite analyst concerns about valuation and future cash flow
- Market Cap
- Rs 60,683 cr
- Current Stock Price
- Rs 330 (as of 2nd January 2026)
- Dividend Yield
- 3.2%
- Operating Margins (EBITDA)
- 45% in FY25, up from 22% in FY24
- Net Profit (Q2FY26)
- Rs 1,430 cr (37% YoY increase)
- Alumina Sales Volume (Q2)
- 396,000 tonnes (39% YoY increase)
- Planned Capex
- Rs 30,000 cr for expanding smelter and power plants