Archive · 22 Aug 2025
Analyst Warns: White Sugar Prices May Rise in Q1 2026
Imagine sugar prices are like a rollercoaster.
Right now, they're going up because countries in Asia and the Middle East want to buy a lot of sugar.
Countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh are buying tons of it.
But, if India, a big sugar producer, doesn't sell enough sugar, the price might go super high in early 2026!
India needs to decide whether to use its sugar to make ethanol (a fuel) or to sell it to other countries.
If they choose ethanol, the sugar prices will stay high; if they export the sugar, the price might stabilize.
White sugar prices are climbing due to high import demand.
Pakistan and Bangladesh are actively importing significant sugar quantities.
Azerbaijan has also committed to importing white sugar.
India's export decisions and ethanol policies impact global supply.
A potential global sugar deficit in Q1 2026 hinges on Indian exports.
- Who
- Claudiu Covrig, Founder & Lead Analyst at Covrig Analytics.
- What
- Potential increase in white sugar prices.
- When
- Q1 2026.
- Where
- Global markets.
- Why
- Due to import demand and the possibility of reduced exports from India.
Impact of Indian Policies
Global Sugar Supply
Ethanol vs. Exports
Impact of Indian Policies
Indian ethanol policies could divert sugar from exports, affecting global prices.
Global Sugar Supply
Balancing ethanol programs with export needs can help stabilize prices.
- Analyst
- Claudiu Covrig
- Market
- White sugar
- Key Importers
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Azerbaijan
- Factors
- Import demand, India's ethanol policies
- Potential Deficit
- Q1 & Q2 2026
- Indian Exports in Trade Flows
- 1.8 million tonnes (2026)