Archive · 4 Oct 2026
By-Polls and Local Results Do Not Predict Statewide Verdicts
Elections for one seat or for local councils show how people in those places vote at that time.
They do not always show how an entire state will vote later.
In Andhra Pradesh, one party won a big by-election and then lost the next state election.
Another party did well in local elections but won very few seats in the following Assembly election.
Telangana has also seen local and by-election wins followed by a change in government.
Voters may choose differently depending on the candidate, local issues, or the election being held.
So these results can offer clues, but they are not a sure prediction of a state election.
The analysis says Khairatabad’s by-election should be understood as a result for that constituency.
It also says the upcoming local elections in Andhra Pradesh will show local political trends, not necessarily the mood of the whole state.
A People’s Pulse Research Organisation analysis finds that by-election and local body results in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have often differed from later Assembly outcomes.
In 2017, TDP won the Nandyal by-election, but YSRCP won the constituency and 151 Assembly seats in 2019.
YSRCP dominated Andhra Pradesh’s 2021 local body elections but won 11 Assembly seats in 2024, while the TDP-led alliance won 164.
BRS won five of seven Telangana by-elections during its tenure and performed strongly in 2019 local polls, but Congress took power in 2023.
The analysis says Khairatabad and upcoming Andhra Pradesh local elections can indicate local political conditions, but do not by themselves establish statewide opinion.
- Who
- People’s Pulse Research Organisation examined election results in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
- What
- The analysis argues that by-election and local body results do not reliably predict later Assembly election outcomes.
- When
- It reviews electoral trends over the twelve years following bifurcation, as well as relevant pre-bifurcation trends.
- Where
- Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
- Why
- By-elections and local polls are shaped by constituency-specific candidates, issues and circumstances that may differ from statewide Assembly contests.
Limits of Election Results
What Results Can Indicate
By-elections as a statewide referendum
Limits of Election Results
A single-seat result reflects one constituency at a particular moment and cannot, by itself, establish the political mood of an entire state.
What Results Can Indicate
By-elections can still provide useful information about local voter sentiment and the strength of parties in that constituency.
Local body election results
Limits of Election Results
Local polls focus on grassroots issues and dynamics, so their results do not automatically predict Assembly elections.
What Results Can Indicate
They can reveal parties’ organisational strength and grassroots support in local areas.
- Study author
- People’s Pulse Research Organisation
- Khairatabad context
- A by-election is expected after the Telangana High Court disqualified sitting MLA Danam Nagender and the Supreme Court declined to intervene.
- Nandyal, 2017
- TDP’s Bhuma Brahmananda Reddy defeated YSRCP’s Silpa Chandra Mohan Reddy by more than 27,000 votes.
- Andhra Pradesh, 2019
- YSRCP won 151 of 175 Assembly seats.
- Andhra Pradesh, 2024
- YSRCP won 11 of 175 seats; the TDP-led alliance won 164.
- Telangana by-elections
- During the BRS government, BRS won five of seven Assembly by-elections; BJP won Dubbak and Huzurabad.
- Jubilee Hills, November 2025
- Congress won the by-election by 24,729 votes after BRS had won the constituency in 2023.