Archive · 16 Nov 2025
Stratospheric Warming Could Lead to Colder or Milder US Winter
Imagine a giant circle of cold air high up above the North Pole, called the polar vortex.
Sometimes, the air way up high near the pole gets surprisingly warm very quickly.
This is like a sudden fever for the Arctic.
When this happens, it can push the polar vortex around.
If the polar vortex gets pushed south, it can send a blast of super cold air down into the United States, making our winter colder with more snow.
But, if this warming in the sky doesn't push the polar vortex too much, the cold air might stay further north.
Then, our winter would be more like a gentle breeze, with warmer temperatures and less snow.
Scientists are watching this happen now to figure out which kind of winter we'll have.
A "sudden stratospheric warming" event is developing above the Arctic.
This event could significantly impact United States winter weather patterns.
If the warming strongly affects the jet stream, it could lead to a colder winter with increased snowfall.
Alternatively, if the warming does not significantly disrupt the jet stream, the US could experience a milder winter with less snow.
The polar vortex, which controls cold air movement into the US, is influenced by stratospheric warming events.
- Who
- Meteorologists, led by Climatologist Judah Cohen from MIT
- What
- A potential "sudden stratospheric warming" (SSW) event above the Arctic could lead to either a colder winter with more snow or a milder winter with less snow across the US.
- When
- The SSW is developing now and could influence winter weather from December into early January.
- Where
- The Arctic stratosphere and its impact on weather patterns across the United States.
- Why
- Sudden stratospheric warming can push the polar vortex south, bringing cold Arctic air into the US. The extent of this disruption will determine if the winter is colder or milder.
- Event
- Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)
- Potential Impact
- Colder winter with more snow OR milder winter with less snow
- Timing
- Developing now, could affect winter from December into early January
- Influencing Factor
- Polar Vortex disruption by SSW
- Additional Influence
- La Niña pattern