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Jio Platforms IPO in Focus as Brokerages Assess Telecom Outlook
Brokerages are estimating how India's major telecom companies may perform in the July-to-September quarter.
Elara expects Airtel and Jio to grow their revenue and operating earnings by double digits.
It also expects both companies to add mobile customers and raise average revenue per user.
Airtel and Bharti Hexacom may benefit as some cheaper mobile packs are discontinued, though the benefit may take time.
Jio is offering a membership that protects eligible plans from price changes until September 5, 2027.
Elara says Vodafone Idea's recent subscriber additions may point to better customer retention.
Investors are also watching for a possible Jio Platforms stock-market listing in October.
Motilal Oswal says the listing may not cause investors to leave Airtel, and that future tariff increases could help both companies.
Elara expects Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio to post double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in Q2 FY27; Bharti Hexacom and Indus Towers are forecast to record mid-single-digit revenue growth.
Elara estimates Airtel and Jio will add 4.1 million and 7.2 million mobile subscribers, respectively, with ARPU reaching Rs 267 for Airtel and Rs 218 for Jio.
Airtel and Bharti Hexacom may partly benefit from discontinuing lower-value packs from mid-August, while Jio's Rs 300 Prime membership offers eligible customers price protection through September 5, 2027.
Elara cited Vodafone Idea's addition of about 0.75 million subscribers in July-August as a sign of improving retention; it also expects Indus Towers to add about 1,300 towers and 4,700 tenancies.
Media reports cited by Elara point to a possible October 28 Jio Platforms listing valued at Rs 13-15 lakh crore; MOFSL said a roughly 3% initial free float limits concerns about investors shifting away from Airtel.
- Who
- Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio, Bharti Hexacom, Indus Towers and Vodafone Idea; brokerages Elara and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
- What
- Brokerages issued Q2 FY27 telecom forecasts and assessed how a possible Jio Platforms IPO and future tariff increases could affect telecom companies.
- Where
- India's telecom sector.
- When
- The forecasts concern Q2 FY27; Vodafone Idea's cited subscriber additions were during July-August. A possible Jio Platforms listing was reported for October 28.
- Why
- The outlook reflects subscriber additions, ARPU and revenue growth, pack and tariff changes, and investor debate over the possible Jio Platforms IPO.
IPO may draw investment away from Airtel
Limited float may temper investor shifts
Effect of the Jio Platforms IPO on Airtel
IPO may draw investment away from Airtel
The prospect of another large listed telecom option has prompted debate about whether investors could reduce their exposure to Airtel.
Limited float may temper investor shifts
MOFSL said those concerns are overblown, citing an expected initial free float of about 3% for Jio Platforms and Airtel's wider FII and DII ownership.
Timing and effect of tariff increases
IPO may draw investment away from Airtel
The timing of an industry-wide tariff hike remains uncertain, and tariff-hike benefits for Jio customers enrolled in price-protected plans would be limited during the protection period.
Limited float may temper investor shifts
MOFSL said the case for a tariff hike strengthens after the Jio Platforms IPO and Vodafone Idea's planned fundraise, and that higher tariffs could support earnings and a multiple re-rating for Airtel and Jio.
Key facts
- Airtel subscriber estimate
- About 4.1 million additions in Q2 FY27, according to Elara.
- Jio subscriber estimate
- About 7.2 million additions in Q2 FY27, according to Elara.
- Estimated ARPU
- Airtel: Rs 267; Jio: Rs 218.
- Jio Prime price protection
- Rs 300 membership; eligible plans are price-protected until September 5, 2027.
- Vodafone Idea additions
- About 0.75 million subscribers during July-August, according to Elara.
- Possible Jio Platforms listing
- Media reports cited by Elara indicate October 28 and a possible valuation of Rs 13-15 lakh crore.
- Potential initial free float
- MOFSL expects Jio Platforms' initial free float to be about 3%.
- Elara target prices
- Airtel: Rs 2,427; Indus Towers: Rs 495; Bharti Hexacom: Rs 1,956.
Quotes
Elara
Brokerage whose Q2 telecom outlook and stock views are discussed in the article.
“Telcos have reiterated the need for tariff repair, although the timing of an industry-wide hike remains uncertain.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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