Archive · 3 Oct 2026
India Expected Around 7% Growth Despite Oil Price Concerns, Shah Says
Nilesh Shah thinks India’s economy could grow by about 7% this year.
He said the economy was moving well in the second quarter.
But he is concerned that expensive oil and too little rain could cause problems.
Higher oil prices can make many things cost more.
Shah said they could also affect interest rates, the rupee, growth, and company profits.
He also spoke about UPI payments.
He said keeping UPI working well costs money, so he thinks users may need to pay a small charge.
The government has said transactions below Rs 2,000 do not have an MDR charge.
Nilesh Shah expects India’s economy to grow around 7% this year and says second-quarter momentum is good.
He cited higher oil prices and deficient rainfall as concerns for the economy.
Shah said rising oil prices could increase inflation and interest rates, weaken the rupee, slow growth, and reduce corporate profitability.
Speaking at the Kautilya Economic Conclave, he described UPI as a strong payment product but said maintaining it requires money.
Shah argued that users may need to pay some MDR for UPI services; he noted the government had said there was no MDR on transactions below Rs 2,000.
- Who
- Nilesh Shah, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council.
- What
- He forecast around 7% economic growth for India this year and discussed oil-price risks and possible MDR charges for UPI.
- When
- Saturday; the article was published on October 3, 2026.
- Where
- At the 5th edition of the Kautilya Economic Conclave.
- Why
- Shah cited positive second-quarter momentum while warning that higher oil prices and deficient rainfall pose concerns; he said UPI needs funding to be maintained.
No MDR Below Rs 2,000
MDR May Help Maintain UPI
Charges on UPI transactions
No MDR Below Rs 2,000
Shah said the government had stated that there was no MDR on transactions below Rs 2,000.
MDR May Help Maintain UPI
Shah argued that maintaining UPI requires money and that users may need to pay some MDR for good service.
- Growth forecast
- Around 7% this year, according to Nilesh Shah.
- Economic momentum
- Shah said second-quarter momentum was good.
- Risks cited
- Higher oil prices and deficient rainfall.
- Potential oil-price effects
- Inflation, interest rates, the rupee, growth, and corporate profitability.
- UPI charges
- Shah said some MDR may be needed to maintain UPI.
- Transactions below Rs 2,000
- Shah said the government had stated there was no MDR on these transactions.
- Publication date
- October 3, 2026.