Archive · 9 Jun 2025
More Equities May Not Increase Retirement Income
Imagine you're retired and taking money out of your investments.
You might think putting more money in stocks, which usually grow a lot, would give you more income.
However, it's not that simple.
If your stocks lose money at the start of your retirement, you might end up with less overall, even if the average return is good.
This is because the order of gains and losses matters when you're taking money out.
Studies show that having too much in stocks can actually lower the amount of money you can safely take out each year.
It's better to have a mix of investments to avoid big swings and have a more stable retirement income.
Increasing equity allocation can reduce withdrawal rates due to sequence of return risk.
Sequence of return risk is when the order of investment returns affects portfolio outcomes, especially with withdrawals.
A retirement portfolio with high equity exposure faces substantial volatility and heightened sequence risk.
Simulations and studies show withdrawal rates initially rise with equity exposure but decline beyond a point.
Retirees should construct a balanced portfolio to reduce volatility.
- Who
- Ravi Saraogi, a CFA and investment advisor, is the author.
- What
- The article explores how increasing equity allocation in retirement portfolios can reduce, not raise, the withdrawal rate due to sequence of return risk.
- When
- The article discusses financial strategies relevant to retirement planning.
- Where
- The analysis is relevant to financial planning, particularly in the context of the Indian market.
- Why
- To explain that while equities offer higher long-term returns, more equity does not always translate to more retirement income, advising a balanced portfolio for retirees.
Article View
Traditional View
Withdrawal Rates and Equity Allocation
Article View
The article challenges the idea that more equities will yield better withdrawal rates, suggesting this isn't the case.
Traditional View
The traditional view believes that high equity allocations would yield higher withdrawal rates.
- Key Finding
- Withdrawal rates decline when equity allocations increase.
- Historical Context
- William Bengen introduced the “4% rule” in 1994.
- Risk Factor
- Early losses can significantly impact a portfolio's value in retirement.
- Supporting Research
- The Trinity Study came to similar conclusions.
- Author
- Ravi Saraogi is a Sebi-registered investment advisor.