Archive · 16 Sep 2026
Climate Signals Forecast Kerala Dengue Risk Months Ahead
Scientists studied dengue cases and weather conditions in Kerala.
They found that temperature, humidity, rainfall and El Nino can provide clues about future dengue outbreaks.
Some clues appear as early as five months before cases reach their highest levels.
Dengue cases in Kerala usually increase in May and peak in June and July.
Moderate warmth, humidity and monsoon rainfall were linked with higher risk.
Very heavy rain may briefly lower risk by washing away mosquito eggs and larvae.
A computer model predicted much of the variation in dengue cases.
Health officials could use these warnings to prepare hospitals and control mosquitoes earlier.
Global warming could make dengue risk higher in the future.
A Kerala-focused study found that climate conditions and El Nino can signal dengue risk up to five months before cases peak.
Kerala recorded 7,188 confirmed dengue cases from June through August 2026, 60 percent above the 2016–2025 average.
Dengue cases usually begin rising in May and peak during June and July, with nearly 60 percent occurring during the Southwest Monsoon.
Researchers developed a machine-learning model that explained 72 percent of the variation in dengue incidence.
The study projects climate-driven dengue incidence in Kerala could rise 16–20 percent by 2040 and 46–113 percent by the end of the century, depending on emissions.
- Who
- Researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the National Institute of Translational Virology and AIDS Research, and collaborating institutions studied dengue in Kerala.
- What
- The study found that climate signals and El Nino conditions can help predict dengue risk months before cases peak.
- When
- The research analysed 14 years of monthly data; Kerala recorded 7,188 confirmed cases during June–August 2026.
- Where
- Kerala, India, with El Nino conditions measured over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Why
- Early warnings could help health authorities strengthen mosquito control, prepare hospitals and reach vulnerable communities before seasonal outbreaks.
- Study location
- Kerala, India
- Early-warning period
- Up to five months before dengue cases peak
- 2026 reported cases
- 7,188 confirmed cases during June–August
- Model performance
- Explained 72 percent of variation in dengue incidence
- Higher-risk conditions
- Pre-monsoon temperatures of about 30.5–32.5°C, humidity of 66–79 percent, and monsoon rainfall of around 180–450 mm per month
- Projected increase by 2040
- 16–20 percent compared with the recent past
- Projected end-of-century increase
- 46 percent under low emissions to 113 percent under a very high-emissions pathway