Archive · 9 Jun 2025
Funds' Bearish Bets on U.S. Grains at Nine-Month High
Investors are betting against grains and oilseeds, like corn and soybeans.
They're doing this because they think the prices will go down.
Many investors are selling contracts, which makes prices fall.
This is happening because the market thinks there might be more corn than expected.
The weather could also affect prices, as a dry spell is predicted.
The USDA is set to release a report on the supply and demand of grains, which could also move prices.
Plus, talks between the US and China on trade could also impact grain prices.
Overall, investors are worried about grain prices going down.
Money managers' net short positions in grain and oilseed futures reached a nine-month high.
Heavier selling occurred in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil.
Net short positions in corn futures hit a nine-month high of 154,043 contracts.
Recent heavy selling in corn comes against a strong U.S. export program and robust ethanol grind.
Traders await the USDA's supply and demand report and potential talks between US and Chinese officials on trade.
- Who
- Money managers and speculators in the grain and oilseed markets.
- What
- Speculators increased bearish positions on U.S. grain and oilseed futures.
- When
- Week ended June 3, with market anticipations for the USDA's supply and demand report on Thursday and talks between U.S. and Chinese officials on Monday.
- Where
- U.S. Corn Belt, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
- Why
- Due to negative sentiment on biofuels, expectation of a larger corn crop than the USDA stated, and anticipated dry spell in the western Corn Belt.
Bullish Factors
Bearish Factors
Corn Export and Ethanol Demand
Bullish Factors
Strong U.S. export program and robust ethanol grind have reduced 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stock predictions.
Bearish Factors
The futures market does not reflect a tight corn situation; market carry is established.
- Net Short Position
- Over 400,000 contracts (combined grain and oilseed futures)
- Most Bearish Since
- Early September (collective position)
- Corn Net Short
- 154,043 contracts (nine-month high)
- Soybean Oil Net Long
- 31,990 contracts (reduced)
- CBOT July Corn vs. December Corn
- July corn opened at a discount