Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Braverman Seat Threatened as Reform UK Vote Share Falls
A new poll estimates how many seats each party might win in a British general election.
Labour is predicted to win the most seats, but not enough to govern alone.
The Conservatives are projected to win 130 seats, while Reform UK could win 123.
This is a major change from last year, when Reform UK was projected to win 311 seats.
Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, who left the Conservatives for Reform UK, are predicted to lose their seats to Conservative candidates.
A new party called Restore Britain is taking some support from Reform UK.
Some voters from other parties also say they would vote tactically to stop Reform UK from winning.
The poll suggests that no right-wing combination would have enough seats to govern alone.
Labour would also need support from other parties if these numbers became an election result.
A YouGov projection puts Labour on 241 seats, ahead of the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123.
The projection gives no party an overall majority, resulting in a hung parliament.
Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick are both projected to lose their seats to Conservative candidates.
Reform UK’s projected seat total has fallen sharply from 311 a year ago, while its national vote share dropped to 22%.
Support for Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain and tactical voting are contributing to losses for Reform UK in marginal constituencies.
- Who
- Labour, the Conservative Party, Reform UK, Restore Britain, and other British political parties; Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick are among the affected politicians.
- What
- A YouGov seat-by-seat projection shows Labour leading but no party winning an overall majority, while Reform UK’s projected support has fallen sharply.
- When
- The projection compares current estimates with a YouGov projection from September of the previous year; the articles do not give a publication date for the latest poll.
- Where
- The projected constituencies are across the United Kingdom.
- Why
- Reform UK’s decline is linked in the articles to support moving to Restore Britain, financial scandals, and tactical voting intended to prevent Reform victories.
Poll Analysts and Critics
Reform UK Supporters
Meaning of the projection
Poll Analysts and Critics
YouGov says fragmentation on the right is costing Reform UK marginal seats and giving Labour more routes toward a working majority. Peter Kellner described the figures as very bad news for Nigel Farage.
Reform UK Supporters
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said he remained confident of a strong general-election performance and argued that council by-election results showed the Conservative vote was collapsing.
Impact of right-wing division
Poll Analysts and Critics
The emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is taking more than three percentage points of Reform UK’s support, according to YouGov, and is helping Labour retain seats.
Reform UK Supporters
The article presents the emergence of Restore Britain as a factor splitting the right-wing vote, but does not include a direct statement from Restore Britain on the projection.
Tactical voting
Poll Analysts and Critics
YouGov research found that some Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green voters would support Conservative candidates to prevent Reform UK from winning, while some Conservative voters would support Labour for the same reason.
Reform UK Supporters
The article does not provide a direct Reform UK response to tactical voting, although Richard Tice expressed confidence in the party’s electoral prospects.
- Projected largest party
- Labour, with 241 seats
- Projected Conservative seats
- 130
- Projected Reform UK seats
- 123
- Projected overall result
- Hung parliament, with no party holding an overall majority
- Reform UK vote share
- 22%, down from 27% a year earlier
- Previous Reform UK projection
- 311 seats in September of the previous year
- Projected Liberal Democrat seats
- 71