Archive · 10 Sep 2026
Three catalysts could drive Reliance Industries stock rerating soon
Reliance Industries’ shares have fallen this year.
Analysts believe several developments could make investors value the company more highly.
First, shortages of diesel and jet fuel may keep refining profits unusually strong.
Reliance could benefit because its export-focused refinery is exempt from a special tax.
Second, the planned Jio IPO could show that the telecom business is worth a lot.
A possible 15% increase in telecom prices could also improve Jio’s earnings.
Third, Reliance is expected to start large solar and battery projects in 2027.
The company’s retail business is still considered its main weakness.
Reliance Industries shares are down 19% this year, according to the article.
The brokerage expects refining margins to remain elevated for the next 12–18 months.
A potential Jio IPO and 15% telecom tariff increase could support valuation.
Reliance plans to begin commissioning 20 GW of solar and 40 GW of battery capacity from January 2027.
Retail remains the company’s main weak spot, while AI integration and project commissioning are additional catalysts.
- Who
- Reliance Industries and its businesses, including Jio, Oil-to-Chemicals, Retail, and New Energy.
- What
- A brokerage identified potential catalysts that could lead to a rerating of Reliance Industries’ shares.
- When
- The potential catalysts are expected over the next 12–18 months, with new-energy commissioning planned from January 2027.
- Where
- The developments involve Reliance’s operations in India, including its refinery in a Special Economic Zone and planned solar projects in Kutch.
- Why
- Strong refining margins, a potential Jio IPO and tariff increase, and new-energy project commissioning could improve earnings expectations and valuation.
- Share performance
- Reliance Industries shares are down 19% this year, according to the article.
- Expected blended GRM
- The brokerage expects Reliance’s blended gross refining margins to remain above $15 per barrel, versus a normalized level of about $10.
- Refining outlook
- The middle-distillate shortage is expected to support refining margins for the next 12–18 months.
- Jio implied equity valuation
- The Jio draft red herring prospectus implies an equity valuation of approximately Rs 12.5 lakh crore.
- New-energy commissioning
- Reliance is expected to begin commissioning 20 GW of solar capacity and 40 GW of battery capacity from January 2027.
- Planned Kutch facility
- Reliance plans to develop a 22 GW solar power facility in Kutch over the following two years.
- Main weakness
- Retail remains Reliance’s key weak spot, although expectations for the business have moderated.