Archive · 3 Oct 2026
Saudi Arabia Weighs Yemen Offensive to Reclaim Bab el-Mandeb
Saudi Arabia is considering a new military operation in Yemen against the Houthis.
The Houthis reportedly took control of an important sea passage called Bab el-Mandeb.
Ships use this passage to travel through the Red Sea between the Mediterranean and Asia.
One possible plan would focus on the coast, while another would involve fighting in several parts of Yemen.
Yemeni forces would do the ground fighting, with Saudi air support.
Other countries are helping mainly with information, equipment or defenses, not expected to fight directly.
Officials have not settled on a start date or the size of the operation.
Experts say the forces opposing the Houthis are divided, so the result is uncertain.
Saudi Arabia is considering an offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen after their reported advance along the coast and seizure of Bab el-Mandeb.
Options include a limited coastal operation or coordinated attacks on multiple fronts in Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh would lead ground operations, supported by Saudi air strikes; officials said more than 100,000 troops could be mobilized, depending on the plan.
The United States is reportedly providing advisers and intelligence, while Pakistan, Turkey and France are supplying or preparing mainly defensive support; allies are not expected to fight directly.
Officials gave no firm launch date, and analysts warned that fragmented anti-Houthi forces may struggle against the Houthis.
- Who
- Saudi Arabia is considering the operation, with Saudi-backed Yemeni forces expected to lead on the ground against the Houthis.
- What
- A possible offensive to regain control around Bab el-Mandeb, either through a focused coastal attack or a broader campaign.
- When
- Officials said it could begin in the coming weeks, but estimates ranged from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.
- Where
- Yemen, including the area around Bab el-Mandeb and potentially Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
- Why
- Saudi Arabia reportedly wants to reverse Houthi gains around the strait and improve its position before possible peace negotiations.
Case for a limited operation
Concerns about a wider or difficult campaign
Scope and objective
Case for a limited operation
Former US ambassador Michael Ratney said a limited coastal operation could retake areas near Bab el-Mandeb and restore normal maritime traffic.
Concerns about a wider or difficult campaign
Officials are also considering synchronized attacks on multiple fronts, which would extend the campaign beyond the coast.
Prospects for success
Case for a limited operation
Saudi air support, military assistance from partners and a possible large Yemeni mobilization could support an offensive.
Concerns about a wider or difficult campaign
Analyst Mohammed Albasha said anti-Houthi forces are not organized or prepared for the sustained effort needed against disciplined Houthi forces; Ali Shihabi said success depends on local forces' performance.
- Possible operation
- A limited attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader campaign on several fronts.
- Potential ground force
- More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized, depending on the operation's scale.
- Reported Saudi role
- Saudi air strikes would support Yemeni forces on the ground.
- Reported US support
- Military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, are reportedly being provided.
- Other reported assistance
- Pakistan and Turkey have provided military equipment; France has announced defensive systems and troops to help protect Yanbu.
- Timing
- No precise launch date was given; estimates ranged from within a week to after early-November US midterm elections.
- Key uncertainty
- Analysts say anti-Houthi forces are fragmented and may not be prepared for a sustained offensive.
