Archive · 10 Jan 2026
Trump's Tariffs Impact US Economy
President Trump raised tariffs on imports to very high levels, which many people thought would cause big problems like higher prices and lower incomes.
But so far, the damage hasn't been as bad as expected.
There are a few reasons for this.
First, some data is missing because of a government shutdown, which makes it hard to know the full impact.
Second, not all the tariffs are in effect yet, and some countries like Mexico and Canada got special exemptions.
Third, companies brought in a lot of goods before the tariffs started and are still using those supplies.
Finally, companies are absorbing the extra costs instead of raising prices right away.
But experts think that in the future, prices will go up and people's real incomes will go down because of the tariffs.
Trump raised tariffs to 18%, the highest level since the 1930s, but the economic damage has been smaller than predicted.
The government shutdown caused data collection issues, making it hard to assess the full impact of the tariffs.
Many high tariffs are not fully in effect, and some countries like Mexico and Canada have exemptions.
Companies frontloaded imports before the tariffs and are absorbing the extra costs, delaying price increases.
Experts predict future price increases and downward pressure on real incomes if the tariffs remain.
- Who
- Jeffrey Frankel, Professor of capital formation & growth, Harvard University and research associate at the US National Bureau of Economic Research
- What
- Analysis of the impact of Trump's tariffs on the US economy
- When
- 2025
- Where
- United States
- Why
- To understand why tariffs haven't crashed the US economy as predicted
- Author
- Jeffrey Frankel, Professor of capital formation & growth, Harvard University and research associate at the US National Bureau of Economic Research
- Tariff Increase
- Average effective tariff on US imports rose from 2% to 18%
- Consumer Price Inflation
- 2.7% for the 12 months ending in November
- Government Shutdown
- October 1 to November 12
- Tariff Exceptions
- Exemptions for goods from Mexico and Canada under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement
- Price Increase Due to Tariffs
- 5.4% at the retail level, raising the inflation rate by 0.7 percentage points
- Economic Damage
- Smaller than predicted, but potential future impacts expected
Sources
Low oil prices driven by weak demand and oversupply despite conflicts: Ian Bremmer
Trump’s political revolution makes America the world’s biggest risk: Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer
Trump's 500% 'levy leverage' on India: Russia sanctions bill gets green light - Telegraph India
Tee for Trumpism: Donald Trump, golf and the Turnberry System - Telegraph India