Archive · 20 Aug 2026
Study Finds Crime Misperceptions Overstate Immigrant and Minority Offending
Researchers asked 1,800 people what they thought crime statistics looked like.
Many people guessed that minorities and foreign nationals committed more serious crimes than the data showed.
For example, people guessed that 55% of convicted killers were from minority ethnic groups, but the actual figure was 35%.
They also guessed foreign nationals made up 25% of prisoners, while the actual figure was 12%.
People thought foreign nationals committed 30% of sexual offences, compared with an actual figure of 15%.
Reform UK supporters generally gave the highest estimates.
Researchers said people may focus more on crime stories that match their existing worries.
People also thought they were more likely to become crime victims than the available figures suggested.
A YouGov survey found people greatly overestimated minority ethnic representation among convicted killers.
Respondents estimated foreign nationals made up 25% of prisoners, versus an actual 12%.
People estimated foreign nationals committed 30% of sexual offences, compared with an actual 15%.
Reform UK supporters gave the highest estimates for minority and foreign-national offending.
The study found people also overestimated their personal chances of becoming crime victims.
- Who
- King’s College London researchers, led by Professor Bobby Duffy, surveyed 1,800 people in England and Wales.
- What
- The study examined public perceptions of crime, ethnicity, foreign-national offending, sentencing and victimization compared with available data.
- When
- The survey concerned crime experienced between 2024 and 2025; the article does not give the survey date.
- Where
- England and Wales.
- Why
- Researchers investigated how concerns about crime, immigration and ethnicity may shape inaccurate public beliefs and affect trust in the justice system.
Public perceptions and political concerns
Study findings and available data
Minority representation among killers
Public perceptions and political concerns
Survey respondents estimated that 55% of convicted killers were from minority ethnic groups; Reform UK supporters estimated 70%.
Study findings and available data
The study reported that minority ethnic groups accounted for 35% of convicted killers, while white people accounted for 64% of homicide convictions.
Foreign-national offending
Public perceptions and political concerns
Respondents estimated that foreign nationals made up 25% of the prison population and committed 30% of sexual offences; Reform UK supporters gave especially high estimates.
Study findings and available data
The reported figures were 12% of the prison population and 15% of sexual offences involving foreign nationals.
Two-tier justice
Public perceptions and political concerns
Overall, 52% believed ethnic or religious minorities received different sentences; some believed they were treated more leniently and others more harshly.
Study findings and available data
The research found no evidence supporting the claim that ethnic or religious minorities systematically receive different treatment in sentencing.
- Survey sample
- 1,800 people surveyed by YouGov.
- Minority ethnic convicted killers
- Estimated at 55%; actual figure reported as 35%.
- White homicide convictions
- Estimated at 45%; actual figure reported as 64%.
- Foreign nationals in prison
- Estimated at 25%; actual figure reported as 12%.
- Foreign nationals and sexual offences
- Estimated at 30%; actual figure reported as 15%.
- Two-tier justice belief
- 52% believed ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently; 29% thought sentences were more lenient and 23% harsher.
- Perceived crime risk
- The median estimated chance of experiencing crime was 27%, compared with 9.7% who experienced crime between 2024 and 2025.