Archive · 7 Aug 2026
US Treasury yields rise as oil climbs before jobs report
Governments borrow money by selling special savings notes called Treasury bonds.
When people worry, they buy these notes, and when they feel safer, they sell them.
This week, many people worried about a very important waterway called the Strait of Hormuz.
A country called Iran said it might stop ships from the United States and Israel from using it.
That made the price of oil jump, because lots of oil travels through that waterway.
When oil gets more expensive, many other things can get more expensive too.
Because of this worry, the income on US Treasury notes went up on Thursday.
Investors were also waiting to see how many new jobs were created last month.
A big government report about jobs was coming the next day.
So the markets were nervous, watching to see what would happen next.
US Treasury yields rose on Thursday as oil prices climbed more than $3 a barrel on concerns about access to the Strait of Hormuz, ahead of Friday's July jobs report.
An Iranian parliament committee is reviewing a bill that would ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and fine violators up to a fifth of their cargo's value.
Iran warned Gulf states it would hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran and seek a negotiated end to the war that began in February.
Economists polled by Reuters expect employers to have added 80,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 59% odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
- Who
- Investors, the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve, and Iran, which warned Gulf states about the Strait of Hormuz.
- What
- US Treasury yields rose as oil prices climbed more than $3 a barrel on Strait of Hormuz access concerns, ahead of Friday's July jobs report.
- When
- Thursday, Aug 6, ahead of Friday's July payrolls report.
- Where
- US financial markets, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of tensions.
- Why
- An Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the strait, and Iran warned Gulf states it could target their oil, power and water plants unless US strikes on Iran end.
Iran's Position
US and Market Position
Strait of Hormuz access
Iran's Position
Iran's parliament committee is reviewing a bill banning US and Israeli vessels from the strait, and Iran told Gulf states it would hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince President Trump to end US strikes and negotiate an end to the war.
US and Market Position
Markets prefer the strait to remain open, betting that a deal to reopen it would keep oil prices and inflation in check; US strikes on Iran are ongoing and no negotiated end to the war has been reached.
- 2-year Treasury yield
- 4.252% (up 7.26 basis points)
- 10-year Treasury yield
- 4.674% (up 5.67 basis points)
- Yield curve (2s/10s)
- 42 basis points
- Expected July job growth
- 80,000 jobs (Reuters poll)
- Unemployment rate
- 4.2% (expected to hold steady)
- Weekly jobless claims
- Increased slightly last week
- July layoffs
- Dropped to a two-year low
- Fed rate hike odds (September)
- 59% per fed funds futures traders