Archive · 17 Nov 2025
Nomura Analyst Sees Consumption Turning Around, Paint Disruption Easing
A market watcher named Mihir Shah from Nomura thinks things are getting better for companies that sell things to people in India.
He used to worry about a new company entering the paint market, but it hasn't hurt the big companies as much as expected.
He also thinks people are still buying gold jewelry even though there are new, cheaper diamonds made in labs.
For food companies like Britannia, he believes they are doing well, especially after some tax changes helped them.
He is feeling more optimistic about these businesses.
Nomura analyst Mihir Shah believes India's consumption is improving, with headwinds easing.
Fears of disruption from Birla Opus in the paint sector are seen as overstated.
The threat from lab-grown diamonds to traditional jewellery is considered overblown.
Jewellery company Titan has shown strong, consistent growth in its studded jewellery.
Britannia is expected to maintain momentum, benefiting from tax cuts and a strong product portfolio.
- Who
- Nomura analyst Mihir Shah
- What
- Upgraded ratings for Asian Paints and Berger Paints, sees stabilization in jewellery and FMCG sectors, and remains positive on Britannia.
- When
- Recent analysis, following upgrades earlier this month.
- Where
- India's consumption landscape
- Why
- Eased sector headwinds, reduced disruption fears from new entrants, and observed stabilizing trends in key consumer categories.
Concerns about Disruption
Nomura's View
Birla Opus Impact on Paint Industry
Concerns about Disruption
Fears that Birla Opus's ₹10,000-crore investment would disrupt growth and margins for established players like Asian Paints and Berger Paints.
Nomura's View
The disruption has not materialized as expected; product prices are similar, dealer margins only slightly higher, and growth slowdown was mainly due to weak overall consumption.
Lab-Grown Diamonds Threat to Jewellery Market
Concerns about Disruption
The rise of lab-grown diamonds may substitute traditional jewellery offerings.
Nomura's View
The threat is overstated, with little evidence of lab-grown diamonds substituting Titan's studded jewellery, which has shown strong growth due to brand trust and market tailwinds.
- Analyst
- Mihir Shah, Vice President, India Consumer – Equity Research Analyst at Nomura
- Key Upgrades
- Asian Paints and Berger Paints
- Birla Opus Investment
- ₹10,000 crore
- Asian Paints Q2 Performance
- Double-digit volume growth, 240-basis points margin expansion
- Titan Studded Jewellery Growth
- 19% CAGR over 12 quarters
- Britannia GST-Cut Beneficiary
- 65% of portfolio at ₹5–₹10 price points