Archive · 11 Sep 2026
India’s Food Inflation Risks Rising Amid Weak Monsoon
India is receiving less monsoon rain than usual.
The current shortfall is the largest since fiscal year 2016.
Stronger El Niño conditions are a main reason for the weaker monsoon.
Water stored in India’s reservoirs is also below its average level for the past 10 years.
Rainfall has not been spread evenly across the country.
This could make it harder to grow kharif and rabi crops.
Kharif crops are generally grown during the monsoon season, while rabi crops are grown afterward.
If crops and vegetables become harder to produce, their prices could stay high.
This means food inflation may remain elevated, especially for perishable foods.
India’s current monsoon deficit is the highest since fiscal year 2016.
Strengthening El Niño conditions are identified as the primary driver of the deficit.
Reservoir levels are below their 10-year average.
Uneven rainfall distribution threatens both kharif and rabi crops.
Food inflation, particularly for perishable items, may remain elevated.
- Who
- Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, assessed the outlook for India’s food inflation.
- What
- A monsoon deficit and low reservoir levels are raising the risk of prolonged elevated food inflation.
- When
- The article refers to the current monsoon and the fiscal year 2016 as a comparison point.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- Strengthening El Niño conditions, below-average reservoir levels, and uneven rainfall distribution threaten kharif and rabi crops, particularly affecting perishable foods.
- Monsoon deficit
- India’s current deficit is the highest since fiscal year 2016.
- Primary driver
- Strengthening El Niño conditions.
- Reservoir levels
- Below the 10-year average.
- Affected crops
- Both kharif and rabi crops face risks.
- Inflation outlook
- Food inflation may remain elevated.
- Most exposed foods
- Perishable items are especially at risk.