Archive · 2 Jun 2025
UN: 70% Chance Warming Will Exceed 1.5°C by 2029
The UN says the world will likely keep getting hotter over the next five years.
There's a high chance that temperatures will rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above what they were long ago.
This means more extreme weather, like heatwaves and changes in rainfall, will become more common.
The Arctic will continue to warm up faster than the rest of the world, which can lead to bigger problems.
It is a serious issue because even small temperature increases can make bad weather events, like floods and heatwaves, even worse.
WMO predicts a 70% chance the 2025-2029 average warming will exceed 1.5°C.
There is an 80% chance at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than 2024.
The global mean temperature for 2025-2029 is expected to be 1.2C to 1.9C above pre-industrial levels.
Arctic warming is predicted to outstrip the global average over the next five years.
Wetter than average conditions are forecasted for South Asia and Sahel, among other regions.
- Who
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
- What
- Continued record-breaking temperatures and increased climate-related risks
- When
- 2025-2029
- Where
- Globally
- Why
- Due to climate change and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions
- Forecast Period
- 2025-2029
- Probability of exceeding 1.5°C warming (2025-2029)
- 70%
- Chance of a year exceeding 2024 temperatures (2025-2029)
- 80%
- Expected temperature increase above pre-industrial average (2025-2029)
- 1.2C to 1.9C
Sources
Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 likely to exceed 1.5°C limit: WMO
Temperatures expected to remain at or near record levels in coming 5 years: WMO
Five-year forecast sees more killer heat, fires, temperature records
UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5 degrees celsius in next 4 years
Global warming target unlikely to be reached, UN says
Global avg temperature expected to continue at or near record level in next 5 yrs, predicts WMO
Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN