Archive · 10 Dec 2025
Gambling or investing? The line blurs in America
In America, the difference between investing in the stock market and gambling is becoming less clear.
Economists have compared the stock market to a casino for a long time.
Recently, companies like Kalshi and Robinhood have started offering prediction markets that look a lot like gambling.
These markets let people bet on things like sports, elections, and awards.
Big gambling and finance companies are also getting involved.
Some people think this is a problem because gambling is usually tightly controlled, while investing is encouraged.
Others argue that these prediction markets are just another form of investing.
The courts and regulators are still figuring out how to handle this new situation.
Economists have long compared stock markets to gambling, with recent trends blurring the line further.
Kalshi, a prediction market, won a lawsuit to offer event contracts, including sports betting, under federal jurisdiction.
Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have started offering similar prediction markets, attracting significant trading volumes.
FanDuel and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plan to launch a prediction market, potentially expanding into sports betting in states where it's not legal.
Regulatory and legal battles continue as states and Native American tribes challenge Kalshi's operations.
- Who
- Economists, financiers, Kalshi, Robinhood, FanDuel, Chicago Mercantile Exchange
- What
- Blurring line between investing and gambling in America
- When
- Recent months, with key events in 2018, 2023, and August 2024
- Where
- United States, particularly in states with varying gambling regulations
- Why
- Changes in policy and legal rulings have allowed prediction markets to offer products similar to gambling, while financial firms explore new markets
- Year Keynes warned about casino-like markets
- 1936
- Year Supreme Court allowed states to permit sports betting
- 2018
- Number of states that have permitted sports betting
- 39
- Year Kalshi won lawsuit for event contracts
- 2023
- Valuation of Kalshi after raising $185m
- $2bn
- Amount traded on Kalshi's sports contracts
- $1.4bn
- Investor in Kalshi
- Citadel Securities boss
- Potential alliance for prediction markets
- FanDuel and Chicago Mercantile Exchange