Archive · 7 Oct 2026
EIA Lifts Fourth-Quarter Brent Forecast to $105 on Supply Risks
The EIA is a US agency that estimates energy prices and supplies.
It now expects oil to cost an average of $105 per barrel in the last three months of 2026.
That is $14 more than its earlier estimate.
The agency says oil shipments from West Asia may stay limited, even as supplies slowly recover.
Damage or attacks on energy facilities could make supplies and prices less predictable.
Strong demand for diesel is also putting pressure on oil prices.
In September, US gasoline and diesel prices rose to $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon on average.
The EIA expects oil prices to be lower in 2027, but its forecast does not include news announced after October 1.
The EIA raised its average Brent crude forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 per barrel, up $14 from its previous outlook.
The agency expects West Asia oil flows to remain constrained through the quarter, while production and exports gradually recover.
Attacks on energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, remain a risk to supply and price stability.
Tight diesel markets are adding pressure to oil prices; US gasoline and diesel averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon, respectively, in September.
The EIA forecasts Brent at $84 per barrel in 2027 and says its outlook excludes developments announced after October 1, including G7-related additional supplies.
- Who
- The US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
- What
- Raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude price forecast to an average of $105 per barrel.
- When
- The forecast is for the fourth quarter of 2026; it was finalised using information available as of October 1.
- Where
- The forecast concerns the global oil market, with risks focused on West Asia; US fuel prices and inventories are also discussed.
- Why
- The EIA cited constrained West Asia oil supplies, attacks on energy infrastructure, and tight global diesel markets.
- Brent forecast, Q4 2026
- $105 per barrel on average
- Change from previous outlook
- Up $14 per barrel
- Brent forecast, 2027
- $84 per barrel on average
- US average gasoline price, September
- $4.35 per gallon
- US average diesel price, September
- $6.29 per gallon
- East Coast distillate inventories, September
- 32% below the five-year seasonal average
- Forecast information cutoff
- October 1; it excludes developments announced after that date, including additional energy supplies following the G7's October 2 announcement