Archive · 13 Aug 2026
Social Security COLA 2027: Analyst Estimate Drops, Stays Above Average
The government runs a program called Social Security that sends payments to eligible people.
Each year, those payments can go up by a set percentage.
That yearly increase is called the COLA, which stands for cost-of-living adjustment.
The goal is to help payments keep up when prices rise.
Analysts try to predict how big the 2027 increase will be.
One analyst, Johnson, recently lowered her prediction for 2027.
Even after the drop, her estimate is still above the long-term average increase of about 2.6%.
Over the past ten years, the average increase has been closer to 3.1%.
That higher average was caused by two very big increases: 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023.
Those big increases happened because prices spiked quickly in those years, which is called inflation.
Analyst Johnson's estimate for the 2027 Social Security COLA was cut but remains above the long-term historical average of about 2.6%.
The long-term historical average Social Security COLA is about 2.6%, according to the article.
Over the past ten years, the average adjustment has been closer to 3.1%, per the Social Security Administration.
The ten-year average was driven up by two unusually large increases: 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023.
Both the 2022 and 2023 increases were driven by inflation spikes during those years.
- Who
- Johnson, an analyst who tracks the Social Security COLA, and the Social Security Administration.
- What
- Johnson lowered her prediction for the 2027 Social Security COLA, but the estimate still sits above the long-term historical average of about 2.6%.
- When
- For the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment; no specific date is given.
- Where
- United States, where Social Security is administered.
- Why
- COLA estimates track inflation; the historical average was inflated by sharp 2022 and 2023 price spikes.
- Topic
- 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) prediction
- Analyst cited
- Johnson
- Johnson's estimate
- Cut, but still above the long-term historical average of about 2.6%
- Long-term historical average COLA
- About 2.6%
- Ten-year average COLA
- About 3.1%
- 2022 COLA
- 5.9%
- 2023 COLA
- 8.7%
- Source of averages
- Social Security Administration