Archive · 7 Sep 2026
Fuel Oil Shortage Threatens Shipping as Wars Disrupt Refinery Output
Fuel oil is used by ships and some power plants.
There may not be enough of it later this year.
Refineries are making more diesel, gasoline and jet fuel because those products earn more money.
This leaves less fuel oil available.
Fighting and attacks have also disrupted refineries and shipping routes.
Ships taking longer routes use more fuel.
In Singapore, a major place for refueling ships, fuel oil prices have risen sharply.
Higher fuel costs could make shipping and transported goods more expensive.
Energy Aspects forecasts a 218,000-barrel-per-day fuel oil deficit in the third quarter.
Refiners are prioritizing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel over lower-value fuel oil.
Fuel oil stocks in Singapore, ARA and Fujairah are about 30% below seasonal averages.
Very low sulphur fuel oil prices in Singapore rose 76% to nearly $825 per metric ton.
Russian and Middle Eastern fuel oil exports have fallen amid refinery and tanker disruptions.
- Who
- Refiners, shipowners, power generators and fuel traders are affected, while disruptions involve Russia and Middle Eastern exporters.
- What
- A tightening fuel oil market is threatening to raise bunker fuel and shipping costs.
- When
- The projected shortage is for the third quarter; prices cited were recorded as of September 1, and Russian export data covered August.
- Where
- The effects are especially significant in Asia, including Singapore, and involve Russia, the Middle East, the Red Sea and major refining centers.
- Why
- Refiners are diverting fuel oil toward higher-value products, while war-related refinery damage and longer shipping routes are reducing supply and increasing demand.
- Projected third-quarter deficit
- 218,000 barrels per day, according to Energy Aspects.
- Singapore fuel oil dependence
- Singapore imports more than half of the nearly 1 million barrels per day it consumes.
- Regional inventories
- Stocks in Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah are about 30% below their three-year seasonal averages.
- Singapore fuel price
- Very low sulphur fuel oil reached just under $825 per metric ton, or about $130 per barrel, on September 1.
- Price increase
- Very low sulphur fuel oil rose 76% from the start of the Iran war, compared with a 40% rise in Brent crude.
- Russian exports
- Fuel oil exports fell to 591,000 barrels per day in August, versus an average above 860,000 barrels per day in 2025.
- Middle Eastern exports
- Fuel oil exports fell 45% year on year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day from March through August.