Archive · 13 Aug 2025
Fed's Rate Cut Decision Hinges on Upcoming Jobs, Inflation Data
The US is trying to figure out if it should lower its interest rates.
Inflation, the rate at which prices are rising, is still around 2.7%, but some prices, like services, are going up faster.
Experts are split on whether this means the government will lower interest rates in September, as the jobs market might be weakening.
More data on jobs and prices will be released soon, which will help the government decide what to do.
US CPI data shows headline inflation at 2.7%, core inflation rising to 3.1%.
Markets anticipate approximately a 94% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Experts debate whether the data will prompt a rate cut in September.
The July payrolls report missed forecasts, indicating a potentially weakening labor market.
Upcoming jobs and CPI reports will significantly influence the Fed's decision.
- Who
- The Federal Reserve and market participants.
- What
- The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
- When
- The next decision expected at the September FOMC meeting.
- Where
- The United States.
- Why
- Due to inflation data, and job market conditions.
Pro-Rate Cut Stance
Anti-Rate Cut Stance
Rate Cut Debate
Pro-Rate Cut Stance
Weakening jobs data may trigger a September rate cut.
Anti-Rate Cut Stance
July CPI data, especially in services, suggests holding rates steady.
- Headline Inflation (July)
- 2.7%
- Core Inflation (July)
- 3.1%
- Probability of Sept. Rate Cut
- 94%
- S&P 500 Gain (Tuesday)
- 1.13%
Sources
Bond Traders’ High Hopes for September Rate Cut Hinge on CPI
Gold edges higher with focus on US inflation data
Dollar holds gains on Fed cut bets; RBA decision keeps Aussie in check
US CPI Data: Check expectations, date and time of release of July inflation numbers
US inflation likely rose slightly in July as data quality concerns deepen
US consumer inflation in July stable at 2.7% amid growing tariff pressures
US consumer prices increase moderately in July; data quality concerns rising
Gold nudges higher after US inflation data
US inflation held steady as mild tariff hit offset by cheaper gas, food
S&P 500 hits record as CPI fuels bets US Federal Reserve will cut
Why did US stock market surge today? Will the optimism hold?
S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record closing highs as moderate inflation lifts rate hopes
Gold gains as soft US data pressures dollar, fuels rate-cut bets
