Archive · 12 Sep 2026
Lula Holds Narrow Runoff Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro
A poll measured support for candidates before Brazil’s October presidential election.
It showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a possible second-round contest.
Lula had 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro had 44%.
These runoff numbers did not change from the previous poll.
In the first round, Lula had 39% and Bolsonaro had 35%.
Augusto Cury had 6%, while Ronaldo Caiado had 4%.
If nobody gets more than half of the valid votes, the top two candidates compete in a runoff.
The poll asked 2,002 people about their voting intentions.
Datafolha put Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 44% in a potential runoff.
The runoff figures were unchanged from the previous poll conducted the week before.
In the first round, Lula led with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%.
Augusto Cury received 6% and Ronaldo Caiado 4% in the first-round scenario.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people from September 8 to 10, with a two-point margin of error.
- Who
- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Augusto Cury, and Ronaldo Caiado were among the candidates measured.
- What
- A Datafolha poll showed Lula maintaining a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in both a potential runoff and the first-round scenario.
- When
- The poll was conducted from September 8 to 10; the election was scheduled for October.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The poll measured voter preferences ahead of the presidential election and possible runoff.
- Runoff polling
- Lula 46%; Flávio Bolsonaro 44%
- First-round polling
- Lula 39%; Flávio Bolsonaro 35%; Augusto Cury 6%; Ronaldo Caiado 4%
- Respondents
- 2,002 people
- Fieldwork dates
- September 8-10
- Margin of error
- Two percentage points
- Runoff rule
- If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid first-round votes, the top two advance
- Polling organization
- Datafolha