Archive · 19 Dec 2025
Credit Markets Show Signs of Stress
The credit markets are showing signs of stress, similar to what was seen before the 2007 financial crisis.
The spreads between corporate bonds and government bonds are very low, which means investors think the risk of problems is low.
However, there have been some big company bankruptcies and worries about the economy, especially among poorer consumers.
There is also a lot of money in private credit markets, which are not as well-regulated.
This could lead to bigger problems if things go wrong.
Even if a big crisis doesn't happen, the low spreads mean there isn't much money to be made, and investors could lose out if things change suddenly.
Credit spreads are at their lowest since 2007, indicating low perceived risk.
High-profile bankruptcies, such as Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, have caused strains in the credit markets.
The private-credit market has grown significantly, with $1.6 trillion in outstanding loans, but it is complex and opaque.
Economic weaknesses, such as rising automotive debt delinquency and falling lorry sales, suggest more firms may come under pressure.
Investors are warned that low spreads mean there is little money to be made, and the risk of losses is high.
- Who
- Investors, credit markets, financial institutions
- What
- Signs of stress and potential risks in credit markets
- When
- Current trends and historical comparisons
- Where
- Global credit markets, with a focus on the U.S.
- Why
- Tight credit spreads, high-profile bankruptcies, economic weaknesses
- Corporate Bond Spreads
- Lowest since 2007
- Junk Bond Spreads
- 2.8 percentage points
- High-Profile Bankruptcies
- Tricolor Holdings, First Brands
- Private-Credit Market Size
- $1.6 trillion
- Payments-in-Kind
- 11% of private-markets firms
- Business Development Companies
- Down 7% for the year
- Automotive Debt Delinquency
- 5% in Q2 2025
- Lorry Sales
- 422,000 in August 2025