Archive · 21 Sep 2026
Australia Warns Ageing Population Will Slow Growth as Births Fall
Australia expects its population to grow more slowly in the future.
This is happening because people are having fewer children and fewer migrants are arriving.
By the 2060s, Australia expects more people to die than to be born.
Immigration may still add people to the population, but it is expected to slow before stabilizing.
An older population will need more healthcare and aged-care services.
Some regions may not have enough workers for those services.
The government has tightened immigration rules while facing pressure from people who want less immigration.
The Treasury also says artificial intelligence, geopolitical changes and the shift to cleaner energy will affect Australia’s economy.
Australia forecasts deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s.
Population growth is projected to average 0.9% annually over the next four decades, down from 1.4% over the past 40 years.
The Treasury identifies artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, population ageing and a service-based economy as major long-term transformations.
Slower immigration and declining fertility are expected to reduce population growth and increase pressure on healthcare and aged-care services.
The Labor government has tightened immigration rules amid rising support for the immigration-restrictive One Nation party.
- Who
- The Australian government, the Treasury department, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the One Nation party.
- What
- Australia published a forecast warning that population growth will slow and deaths will exceed births in the 2060s.
- When
- The report was published on Monday, with deaths projected to outnumber births in the 2060s.
- Where
- Australia.
- Why
- Declining fertility, slowing immigration and population ageing are changing the country’s demographic and economic outlook.
Population Planning and Labor Needs
Immigration Reduction
Immigration policy
Population Planning and Labor Needs
The Treasury warns that ageing regions and care services may face labor shortages because healthcare and aged care rely heavily on migrant workers.
Immigration Reduction
One Nation has pledged to sharply curb immigration, and the Labor government has tightened immigration rules amid growing support for the party.
Population growth
Population Planning and Labor Needs
Continued migration can help offset declining births and support population growth as natural increase weakens.
Immigration Reduction
Lower immigration is being pursued as part of a political response to concerns associated with rapid population growth.
- Projected natural decrease
- Deaths are expected to outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s.
- Future population growth
- Average annual growth is projected at 0.9% over the next four decades.
- Past population growth
- Australia’s population grew by an average of 1.4% annually over the past 40 years.
- Migration outlook
- Net overseas migration is expected to fall before stabilizing.
- Care-sector impact
- Demand for healthcare and aged-care services is expected to increase.
- Long-term transformations
- The report highlights artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, ageing and the shift to services.
- Political context
- The Labor government tightened immigration rules amid increased support for One Nation.