Archive · 25 Jul 2026
2026 World Cup Carbon Footprint: Predictions vs Reality
The 2026 World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, aimed to be carbon-neutral.
Initially, it was estimated to produce 3.7 million tonnes of CO₂e.
However, the actual event was larger, with 104 matches and nearly 7 million spectators.
Different groups predicted varying emissions, with some saying it could be the dirtiest sporting event ever due to high international travel.
A computer model, though, estimated lower emissions of about 3.2 million tonnes.
The key factor is how many fans traveled internationally, which will be known in August when border agencies release spectator data.
This will help determine the true carbon footprint of the event.
The 2026 World Cup aimed for carbon neutrality but lacked updated emissions estimates from FIFA.
Initial estimates predicted 3.7 million tonnes of CO₂e, but the actual event was larger with 104 matches and nearly 7 million spectators.
Scientists predicted higher emissions due to international travel, while a computer model estimated lower emissions of about 3.2 million tonnes.
The key factor in emissions is the percentage of international fans, which will be known in August.
The 2026 World Cup drew almost double Qatar's crowds but had lower individual emissions per spectator.
- Who
- FIFA, bid committee, scientists, and carbon consultancies
- What
- Predictions and actual emissions of the 2026 World Cup
- When
- During and after the 2026 World Cup
- Where
- United States, Canada, and Mexico
- Why
- To assess the environmental impact and carbon footprint of the event
Higher Emissions Prediction
Lower Emissions Prediction
Emissions Estimate
Higher Emissions Prediction
Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR) and Greenly predicted 9 million and 7.8 million tonnes of CO₂e respectively, citing high international travel.
Lower Emissions Prediction
A computer model predicted about 3.2 million tonnes of CO₂e, considering existing stadiums and shorter team travel distances.
Aviation Warming Impact
Higher Emissions Prediction
SGR and Greenly considered the broader warming effects of aviation, including contrails and nitrogen oxides.
Lower Emissions Prediction
The computer model focused primarily on CO₂ emissions, reducing the estimate to 1.9 million tonnes if only CO₂ is considered.
International Travel Assumptions
Higher Emissions Prediction
SGR and Greenly assumed a high percentage of international fans, significantly increasing the carbon footprint.
Lower Emissions Prediction
The computer model estimated that only 42% of fans traveled internationally, leading to a lower overall emissions estimate.
- Initial Emissions Estimate
- 3.7 million tonnes of CO₂e
- Actual Emissions Estimate
- 3.2 million tonnes of CO₂e
- Number of Matches
- 104
- Number of Spectators
- Nearly 7 million
- Carbon Neutral Pledge
- Bid committee aimed for carbon-neutral event
- FIFA's Climate Target
- Reduce emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2040
- Key Unknown Factor
- Percentage of international fans
- Decisive Evidence Release
- August, when spectator data from US, Canada, and Mexico border agencies will be released