Archive · 25 Sep 2026
Nomura warns Meesho valuation may fall 24% against rivals
Meesho is an online shopping company focused on affordable products.
It connects shoppers with many small and medium-sized sellers.
Nomura thinks Meesho’s business model is strong and does not require it to own much inventory or delivery equipment.
However, Nomura believes Meesho’s shares are currently priced higher than similar companies.
It set a target price that is about 24% below the current price.
Meesho may grow quickly as more people shop online in India.
Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce companies could compete more strongly in the future.
Delivery problems and higher competition could make it harder for Meesho to improve profits.
Nomura initiated coverage of Meesho with a Reduce rating and a Rs 167 target price.
The target price is nearly 24% below Meesho’s current share price, according to the report.
Nomura expects Meesho’s net merchandise value to grow at a 23% annual rate through FY30.
The brokerage says Meesho’s asset-light model and Valmo logistics platform support its growth prospects.
Competition from Amazon, Flipkart, quick commerce and logistics disruptions could pressure Meesho’s margins.
- Who
- Meesho and global brokerage house Nomura are the central parties; Amazon, Flipkart, Eternal and Swiggy are cited as competitors or comparison companies.
- What
- Nomura began coverage of Meesho with a Reduce rating and a Rs 167 target price, warning that its valuation is high relative to rivals.
- When
- Meesho was listed in December 2025; Nomura’s projections cover FY27 through FY30, with first-quarter FY27 figures cited.
- Where
- The analysis concerns India’s online commerce market.
- Why
- Nomura believes Meesho’s strong growth prospects are offset by its premium valuation, intensifying competition and possible logistics-related margin pressure.
Nomura’s valuation concerns
Meesho’s growth case
Share valuation
Nomura’s valuation concerns
Nomura says Meesho trades at a significant premium to Eternal and Swiggy, leaving little room for execution errors.
Meesho’s growth case
Meesho is positioned as a direct play on India’s fast-growing online value-commerce market.
Competition
Nomura’s valuation concerns
Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce platforms could expand in value and non-grocery commerce, increasing competitive pressure.
Meesho’s growth case
Meesho has an early-mover advantage and caters to around 90% of India’s online shoppers, according to Nomura.
Profitability
Nomura’s valuation concerns
Third-party logistics disruptions and stronger competition could hinder expected margin improvement.
Meesho’s growth case
Nomura expects higher advertising revenue and logistics spreads to help adjusted EBITDA margin reach 2.9% by FY30.
- Nomura rating
- Reduce
- Nomura target price
- Rs 167 per share
- Target-price downside
- Nearly 24% below Meesho’s current price
- Expected NMV growth
- 23% compound annual growth through FY30 from FY27
- Expected adjusted EBITDA margin
- 2.9% by FY30, compared with -1.2% in Q1 FY27
- Valmo logistics network
- Approximately 18,000 logistics partners
- Advertising revenue outlook
- Potentially 5% of net merchandise value by FY30, versus 3% in Q1 FY27